Events & Chats

Get a chance to win to Venice from Samsung

2010-05-19T08:06:00.000+05:30

Samsung lifestyle currently comprises four divisions in the north - IT, audio and video, home appliances and mobile phones. Each division offers the possibility of developing a particular lifestyle in the office, at home or on the go. TV and home theater systems is now also a part of home decor. Mobile has become an indispensable part of ourselves. Refrigerator design compliment the kitchen. And the printer can be left on the desktop, without having to be ashamed of how it looks.

Samsung have over time built up a strong trust with the Nordic customers and happy to announce a chance to win to Venice

Samsung

Expert Portal Denmark's largest portal for renowned experts

2010-05-03T07:50:00.001+05:30

Expert Portal Denmark's largest portal for renowned experts

If you're tired of simply being in a flock, then Expertportal.dk is
one of the best ways to stand out and be seen at. Whether you are self-employed, job seekers or simply expert. Build personal branding, recognition, create passion in life

There so many ordinary experts out there
- The trick is to find people who know what we want to know. Productivity requirement is large, the topic spread far-trapping, and unfortunately there is always time for long immersion. Therefore chosen the usual experts - The Usual Suspects - when it comes to sources of a story. Thumping predictable - and often thumping boring. Because there are so many ordinary experts out there that could help with new and different knowledge. People who have dedicated their lives to their passion and know everything about such. Real Madrid or Manchester United.

Buzzanova - a new viral advertising

2009-12-31T07:59:00.001+05:30

Buzzanova går ind for at lave lidt sjovere reklamer til folket. bla. TictacMicha som kan ses her http://www.tictacmicha.com/

Buzzanova tager udgangspunkt i at lytte til forbrugerne og der ud fra lave reklamer der både er sjove men også interessante så de inddrager brugerne og giver dem mulighed for at involvere sig med produkter eller brands. Se det kunne de andre selskaber der laver reklamer godt lære noget af.

Buzzanova has many funny commercials for the people.
TictacMicha is one of them which can be viewed here http://www.tictacmicha.com/

Buzzanova is based on listening to consumers and with it's ability to funny advertising they involve the users and allows them to get involved with products or brands.

Buzzanova - a new viral advertising

2009-12-31T07:59:00.000+05:30

Funny Little Impossible Girl Video

2009-12-05T13:07:00.000+05:30

Se de sjove fraklip fra børnfondens nye reklamefilm med bla. Bent Fabricius-Bjerre i hovedrollen der prøver at få styr på den lille umulige pige.

See the funny outtakes from the children fund new commercials with blah.
Starring Bent Fabricius-Bjerre trying to get a grip on the little girl impossible.

Link : http://www.dagensbuzz.dk/video/40/13/autoplay

Earn by blogging for paid campaigns

2009-11-28T13:05:00.001+05:30

Er du en publisher? Hvis det er tilfældet er det nu muligt at tjene penge ved at sprede sjove reklamer, virale film og spil via din blog eller dit website nemt og hurtigt. Du kan tage forskellige kampagner og enten blive betalt pr. blogpost eller pr. film view eller click.

Buzzanova de førende indenfor viral markedsføring i Danmark, står bag den geniale ide med buzzamedia.

Are you a publisher? If so, it is now possible to earn money by spreading the fun advertising, viral movies and games through your blog or website quickly and easily. You can take a variety of campaigns and either get paid per. blog post, or by. movies view or click.

Buzzanova leader in viral marketing in Denmark, behind the brilliant idea of
buzzamedia/.

Fight Against Winter Blues, Visit Canary Islands

2009-11-16T22:15:00.001+05:30

Sig nej til Winter blues. Gør som beboerne på De Kanariske Øer der aldrig har hørt om de lange mørke vinter dage, vinterdepression eller dårligt vejr i det hele taget; Say no to winter blues. Besøg nowinterblues og se den charmerende reklamefilm og læs om hvad du kan opleve på De Kanariske Øer.

Besøg De Kanariske Øer på ferie denne vinter og nyder solen skinne hver dag.
Kom ud af vinterdepression.

Say no to the Winter blues. Do as the inhabitants of the Canary Islands have never heard of the long dark winter days, winter depression or bad weather at all, "Say no to winter blues. Visit nowinterblues and see the charming commercials and read about what you can experience in the Canary Islands. Visit Canary Islands on Holidays this winter and enjoy Sun shine every day.
Get out of winter depression.

TeamUnibet

2009-10-25T06:48:00.001+05:30

Robert Hansen får et blowjob af hans nye ven. Se det overraskende og ucensureret klip...

More videos here
http://www.teamunibet.dk

TeamUnibet

2009-10-25T06:48:00.000+05:30

Robert Hansen får et blowjob af hans nye ven. Se det overraskende og ucensureret klip...

More videos here
http://www.teamunibet.dk

Christian farm tour

2009-10-20T21:36:00.001+05:30

Christian har startet det alternative rejsebureau Farm Tours og tager ud for at se om folk på gaden er klar på noget frækt med dyr.
Translated to English for English readers

Christian has started the alternative Farm Tours and go out to see if people on the street is aware of something bold with animals.

Info Link dagensbuzz

Tina get naked and ....

2009-09-06T17:11:00.001+05:30

Basic Card launch new campaign. Help Tina from Aquador win model competition worth 25.000

Basickort lancere nyt kampagne. Hjælp Tina fra Aquador model konkurrencen og vind 25.000,-

Online Casino Reports

2009-08-04T08:24:00.002+05:30

Online Casino og Poker

OCR - Covers the local markets exclusively. It offers many services to users such as gaming articles, videos, game guides, and reviews.

Visit the site by clicking on the image below

The latter are carefully selected to cover only those online gambling sites that cater to local players: they are in Danish/Swedish and provide customer support in the language; they accept deposits in the local currency and support local payment methods; they list and link to gambling-related sites in the local market, and more.

Please feel free to explore the site yourself.

Channel on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/ocreditor

Our Blog:

http://blog.onlinecasinoreports.com/

Karolines Cookbook on iPhone

2009-06-10T21:02:00.000+05:30

Ny IPhone applikation. Karolines Kogebog til Iphone er nu kommet til Danmark. Er du indehaver af en iPhone, så er aftensmaden reddet! Opskrifterne kan hentes kvit og frit sammen med billeder, indkøbsliste og ernæringsindhold.

New iPhone application. Karolines Cookbook for the Iphone has now come to Denmark. Are you the owner of an iPhone, then supper saved! Recipes can be downloaded free, and even with pictures, shopping lists and nutritional content.

Own a 50000 Danish Krone Visa Gift Card from Amagerbanken

2008-09-01T22:14:00.001+05:30

Design og vind dit eget Visa/Dankort med Bonnie og Amagerbanken.
Upload dit eget billede og vind et rejsegavekort til en værdi af 50.000 kr.
Jo flere venner der melder sig til jo større chancer er der for at vinde. I kan selv vælge hvor I tager hen og hvem I vil have med.

Design and win your own Visa / Dankort with Bonnie and Amagerbanken.
Upload your own image and win a free gift worth value of 50,000 Danish Krone
The more friends who sign up for the more likely it is to win. I can choose where I go and who I want

Visit www.basickort.dk

Bloggerwave - new way to interact with advertiser

2008-08-23T03:54:00.001+05:30

Join Bloggerwave and write about an advertiser on your website. Simple isn't it. Find out yourself for more information.

Så er Bloggerwave klar til at modtage flere norske bloggere til vores side. Bloggerwave er en ny mulighed for bloggere hvor de kan tjene penge på at blogge om diverse virksomheder, produkter mm. Bloggerwave arbejder sammen med forskellige bureauer og vil hele tiden finde nye spændende emner, som bloggere kan give deres ærlige mening og holdning omkring. Bloggerwave\\''\''s koncept er kendt fra USA hvor det har eksistret en del år efterhånden og bliver mere og mere udbredt som et alternativ til adsense, banner reklamer eller bare traditionel reklame. Hop på vognen og begynd at tjene penge med Bloggerwave idag. se mere på bloggerwave.no

Tele 2- Cheap calls are hard to resist

2008-08-10T05:16:00.001+05:30

Hvis du vil overraske eller tulle med vennene dine sjekk ut denne nettsiden. http://www.cheapcallsarehardtoresist.eu Dine venner kommer først til å tro at de har sjangs på en skikkelig fin dame eller en kjekk type.

English Translation

If you want to surprise or fool around check out this nettsiden. http://www.cheapcallsarehardtoresist.eu

PWC prediction on Olympics

2008-08-09T00:36:00.001+05:30

With the world getting ready to see the spectacular opening ceremony of the Olympics in Beijing, the spirit of sports, hopefully should take over. For India, Olympics is not like cricket. Because we rarely win in the Olympics and our performance is always amongst the bottom of the pile, despite having a population of over one billion, people are not exactly agog about it.

Actually people have no expectations at all. Because expectations always lead to disappointment. Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC) which is a reputed financial firm, has made predictions about the Olympics too. Treating the whole thing like how they probably read a balance sheet, by comparing past track record and going by what is on offer this time, PwC has predicted that India can win about 6 medals. It has also stated that China will beat US this time with a higher medal tally. It predicts China to top the tally with a total of 88 medals, 25 more than the Athens Olympics and one more than the USA’s predicted total for this edition of the games.

What is very interesting is that it has presented a report titled “Economic Briefing Paper: Modelling Olympics Performance” and in that, it states, the a countries’ performance at the biggest sporting stage is linked to, among other factors, the average income level (measured by GDP per capita at purchasing power parity exchange rates) and population. Its logic is that the number of medals won by countries increases with its population and wealth, but less proportionately. Makes any sense?

http://1881.absoluteinteractive.no/

2008-08-09T00:30:00.001+05:30

1881 kjører en kampanje der man kan ta bilder av ting og tang som ser ut som formen 1881. Man kan vinne en MacBook Air hver uke i hele sommer – sjekk ut mer ved å klikke på linket. http://1881.absoluteinteractive.no/

English Translation
1881 drive a campaign where you can take pictures of thing and seaweed that looks like the form 1881.

You can work a MacBook Air this week in whole summer - cheque out more by clicking on linked.http://1881.absoluteinteractive.no/

EPFO AMCs – WHAT LIES BENEATH ?

2008-07-31T01:46:00.000+05:30

Today inflation is at 11.89% and currently, there is no fixed term deposit, Post Office savings scheme or even the Public Provident Fund which gives a return which would help keep one’s head above the water. It’s become a case of aamdani athanni, kharcha rupaya! What is even more frustrating is that there is a legitimate way in which, by prudently investing the crores of rupees which currently lies in the provident funds, one can beat inflation and give a much better return. Fortunately, this idea which was germinated by the Finance Minister in his Budget Speech of 2006-07 is finally given the go ahead.

In a landmark decision, yesterday’s another big news, which got lost in all the mayhem created by the credit policy, was that of the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) selecting three private fund managers, along with India's largest commercial bank, to manage its corpus of Rs.240,000 crore. The organisation's trustees selected the asset management companies (AMC) of HSBC, ICICI Prudential and Reliance Capital, along with that of the State Bank of India -, to manage the fund that has 44 million members.

It is not yet known what would be the percentage of the Rs.2.4 lakh corpus which each AMC would get, that will now be decided by the trustees of EPFO. HSBC being the lowest bidder might actually get allocated a larger percentage of the corpus. So allocation of the corpus would be indirectly proportional to the fees charged.

The four AMCs will also render custodial services to maintain the previous investments currently held by SBI. The funds will continue to be managed as per the existing norms, which allows up to 5% equity investment. At present, EPFO does not invest in stocks. There is a proposal to allow the fund to invest up to 10% in equity, which has so far been resisted by trade union representatives on Board. Around Rs.30,000 crore will be available as incremental accretion to these fund managers each year. Crisil will monitor the performance of the new fund managers and will begin operations from September 1, 2008.

EPFO pays an annual service fee of Rs.5 crore to SBI and now that the four AMCs are going to pay a percentage as fees, the EPFO could have a savings of Rs.2 crore. So it’s a win-win for EPFO all along!

Now there is one interesting thing which happened during the shortlisting of the bidders. The original plan was to have just three bidders and according to the lowest bidders, being HSBC, ICICI Prudential and SBI were selected. Reliance Capital, however, was not among the managers shortlisted, its bid was rejected on technical grounds. However, the Board of Trustees amended some rules to accommodate the fourth AMC and that is how Reliance managed to put its feet in before the door snapped shut. Talk about having the right clout in the right places!

Infact the Left trade union representatives have gone on record stating that the inclusion of Reliance was politically motivated, more to accommodate the new found partners of UPA – the Samajwadi Party. The decision to have four instead of three AMCs is good, as it spreads the risks and increases the earning potential. But what came as a surprise was that only one name was suggested for the fourth AMC and that was of Reliance. How come it got accepted despite having earlier got rejected on “technical” grounds?

HSBC had quoted a fee of 0.0063%, ICICI Prudential quoted 0.0075%, SBI 0.01% and Reliance Capital also at 0.01%. HDFC AMC and Birla Sun Life AMC were also shortlisted but were later rejected as they had made a bid at zero percent. And the Trustees said that zero percent did not constitute a valid contract and were hence rejected. It’s a pity that in their eagerness to win the prestigious bid, they were ready to take on the asset management of the largest corpus in India for free. The trustees felt that these AMCs by quoting a zero percent were trying to cash-in on the prestige of being associated with managing funds of EPFO. But then under the same logic, wasn’t Reliance also accommodated despite the shortcomings, isn’t that a major compromise?

Politics has permeated into all facets of our lives. Managing terrorism has become a political issue, need we say more? So in that context, call it politically motivated or sheer clout, the fact that EPFO has now taken this bold step ahead is in itself a major victory. Fine, some rules were amended to accommodate Reliance but at least rules were amended for the good! Like most pragmatic Indians, its best to accept that some things do happen underneath but so what, when the end result is positive? The performance and returns will show whether this was worth it or not.

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2008-07-31T01:40:00.000+05:30

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Income Tax queries answered by Vikas Gandhi, Income Tax Consultant

2008-07-11T12:25:00.002+05:30

Were you prudent with your investments last year? Did they help you save tax? Or did you end up paying more than you could afford?

What investment mistakes did you make last year? Are their ways to rectify them? What investment options should you go for this year?

What should you do to bring your tax liability to the minimum level?

In an hour-long chat on rediff.com, direct tax expert Vikas M Gandhi replied to many such readers' queries. Here's the transcript:

Vikas Gandhi says, Good evening friends and welcome back to the tax chat session.

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Prasath asked, I did e-filing and got ITR-V form. Is it necessary to sign and submit it to IT office?
Vikas Gandhi answers, at 2008-07-10 15:52:45Yes. It is necessary to sign and submit the copy of ITR-V. Till the time you don't file your ITR-V, the Income Tax Department will not process your return and the status will be as good as not filed. The return that has been uploaded to the Income Tax Department website is unsigned and hence for the Department to confirm that correct person has uploaded the return, needs confirmation by way of signed copy of ITR-V.
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Ram asked, HI, this is Ram. Can I claim the interst and primciple amount limit if I take tso housing loans from different banks?
Vikas Gandhi answers, If both these loans have been taken for the same property, you can claim the interest and principal amount in your income tax return. there is no limit for the number of housing loans you take and repay during the year.
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Narayana asked, Hi, I am salaried person. I want to file my returns through online. if so do i need to submit any hard copy after that.
Vikas Gandhi answers, The answer depends on how you file your returns online. While online filing there is an option to attach a digital signature. If you have one and attach digital signature while e-filing, there is no need to submit a hard copy. However if you file without a digital signature, then you will have to submit a hard copy of ITR-V (generated on the e-filing) within 15 days of e-filing.
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Narayana asked, Hi, I am salaried person. I want to file my returns through online. if so do i need to submit any hard copy after that.
Vikas Gandhi answers, The answer depends on how you file your returns online. While online filing there is an option to attach a digital signature. If you have one and attach digital signature while e-filing, there is no need to submit a hard copy. However if you file without a digital signature, then you will have to submit a hard copy of ITR-V (generated on the e-filing) within 15 days of e-filing.
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Ashwin asked, I dont have the old companys Form-16, i got the form 16 from new company. Can I fill the ITR without old company's form -16. Thus I m salaried employee.
Vikas Gandhi answers, You will need a copy of Form 16 from your previous employer also. this is because in case tax has been deducted on your salary by such employer you need to disclose certain additional details. It is better that you have all the Form 16 with you.
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chella asked, Hai,i have form-16 with home loan(own house).How will file form-16 through online and which form can used to file home loan?
Vikas Gandhi answers, Firstly you don't have file Form 16 online. it is the Income tax Return that you have file online. Since you are paying housing loan and have no income other than Salary, you will have to file your return in ITR-2.
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anitawig asked, Dear Sir, i have been filling ITR for almost 15 yrs, last yr i do not have taxable, do i need to file my IT Return.
Vikas Gandhi answers, In normal circumstances if a person is not having taxable income, is not required to file a income tax return. However since you have been filing your returns since last 15 years and if you expect to earn taxable income in succeeding years, it would be advisable for you to file return for the current year in order to maintain continuity.
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Ravi asked, If I take homeloan and buy the house and my parents staying in it.I am working in another state. Will I get both homeloan , HRA benefits both?
Vikas Gandhi answers, In the circumstances mentioned by you, you can claim both the benefits, namely - HRA & Home loan.
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Jay asked, Please answer: Tax has been cut from my salary, At the last date of submission of Documents I was waiting for receipt of the HDFC [Get Quote] insurance policy which I have taken newly they hv provided me provisional but it was not accepted. Now I got the original reciept of the 1st premium I paid which is not included in Form 16. Can I cliam Rfund by any ways
Vikas Gandhi answers, Certainly you can. while preparing your Income Tax Return, add your Insurance premium and claim your tax refund.
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Sriram asked, Sir, some specific query. a. I have a STCG of Rs 2.75 lakhs and I have deposited advance tax for this in March and April 2008 - a total of Rs Rs 30,000. Can I claim a refund ? The STCG was in my wife's trading account, although money invested was mine. b. Do I fill in IRT -2 and can I do that on internet ?
Vikas Gandhi answers, Since the investment was made by you, the capital gain will be considered as yours and you will have to pay tax on the same. You have already paid advance tax of Rs.30,000/-. However whether you are eligible for refund or not, depends on your total income. Assuming that you do not have any business income, you will have to fill ITR-2 for filing your income tax return.
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suresh asked, Hi..I switched over my company last year july. So i have two Form16 one is from my previous compnay and other one is of my current company..In my previous company Form16 there is refund amt around 8000. How do i claim this and how do i submit both this form 16
Vikas Gandhi answers, Do no bother about the final tax position in your Form No.16. Since you have worked with two employers, the final tax position will show a misleading position. While filing your income tax return, just add salary income from both the employers, calculate tax and deduct the tax deducted on salary income. This might result into tax payable or refundable. Further you do not have to attach any Form 16 or any other document while filing income tax return.
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balaji asked, I heard that in case if you purchase a property worth exceeding 30 lakhs( registered value), the same has to delcared along with the return Also it applies to the purchase of property which is not situated in town but at town panchayat
Vikas Gandhi answers, Your understanding is perfectly correct. In case of purchase or sale of property worth Rs.30 lakhs or more, you have to declare the same in your income tax return. This is just an additional information that you will be providing to the Income tax Department.
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Aroop asked, I am a salaried person, and understand that i need to fill up ITR-1 form. I can do it online, but how can I get the digital signature?
Vikas Gandhi answers, there are several vendors in India who are authorised to issue Digital Signature. You can search on web and find it out. Even Taxsmile allows you to procure Digital Signature from its website.
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amit_chakrabarti asked, Hi Vikas-I have invested in a FD in the name of my wife. The funds are out of my salaried income on which tax is paid. In whose income will the interest on FD get added?
Vikas Gandhi answers, Since you have invested in fixed deposit in your wife's name, any income from such F.D. will be treated as your income under the clubbing provisions of the Act and hence you will have to pay tax on the income.
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amitsingh_mbm asked, I'm a salaried person. What if I file my TAX returns after 31st July.
Vikas Gandhi answers, If you fail to file your return before 31st July, the implications will be as under - 1.If your tax calculation is resulting into additional tax payment, you will have to pay additional interest @ 1%. 2. In case tax calculation is resulting into refund, interest on refund will be granted from the date of filing instead of 1st April. 3. In case of any unadjusted losses, you will not be able to carry forward such loss to succeeding years.
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gana asked, can i use my Digital signature to file for others?
Vikas Gandhi answers, No you cannot do this. With your digital signature you can file only your income tax return or return of a firm in which you are a partner or company in which you are a Director. However please do not use your Digital Signature for uploading Income Tax Return of someone else.
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Dayasagar asked, Respected Vikas ji, What is the last date for submission of IT return by individuals? My wife submitted returns till last year i.e. for the year 2007-08. She has retired on 31.8.2007. She is getting pension of Rs.6,500 p.m. + interest on around 8 lacs @ 9.5% or so. Is she required to submit return this year also? Kindly inform us. With reggards Dayasagar/9810412963
Vikas Gandhi answers, If the total income of your wife exceeds Rs.1,45,000/- for the year ended on 31/3/2008, she will have to file income tax return. the last date of filing income tax return for the year 2007-2008 is 31st July, 2008.
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Vikas Gandhi says, That's all for this chat session friends. Hardly 20 days have been left for filing your income tax return. Please do not wait for the last day and file return as early as possible. Good bye.

Be a winner by joining Blogger's Mission Game

2008-07-06T11:21:00.002+05:30

Information Link

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It is all about missions. Missions need to be fulfilled and documented via foto/Video and send to the platform. Missionbloggers fulfill missions because it is fun unlimited with friends, chance to win prizes and even earn money if you are a unforgettable missionblogger. Try it out - you will not stop talking about it.

Missionblogs needs creative characters. What about you? Following missions are open to participate - TRASHTIE Mission , POOL Mission – get more information under missionblog.eu

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Which Shares you can invest in - Chat with Ambareesh Baliga

2008-06-10T15:13:00.002+05:30

Chat Transcript
mithpreeth: Sir, urs top 5 picks in large cap

ambareeshbaliga: Reliance Ind, L&T, ITC, Tata Motors and BHEL

mumbai.com: how much downside expect in the mkts

ambareeshbaliga: I don't see much of a downside from here but again the recovery may not be swift. We could see the markets range bound (within a 1000 point range) for the next month or so. We could see the markets turning robust around Oct/Nov this year but 21k mark may happen next year

patil77: whats ur view on bartronics and nitin fire for long term at cmp?

ambareeshbaliga: Bartronics & Nitin fire are still buys at current levels. Nitin Fire especially can give short/med term bounce back to 500+ levels.

patil77: is gmr infra a good buy at 113?

ambareeshbaliga: Yes you should buy GMR Infra @ current levels. Keep some money for averaging in case it falls to levels below 100

nicos: Hi your views on Alps Industires and Nelcast

ambareeshbaliga: Alps - no Idea but Nelcast we were a bit disappointed with the results for Q4FY08. But with expected revised EPS for FY09 of Rs. 21/- and current dividend payout of Rs. 3/-, I don't see any reason to panic in Nelcast. We cannot target 200+ but I suppose 160+ is possible

Bharat25: Hello Baliga Sir, Do you expect that the stocks which have not broken Jan-Mar lows will outperform in near term.

ambareeshbaliga: I don't expect these lows to be broken easily. The time correction too has taken place and with the performance of Q1FY09 coming in the next 30-45 days, I don't see any reason for Funds to be selling India. Our markets have underperformed in the recent past hence I see some amount of catching up happening in the near future

Rajshree Baheti: Hi, ur view on GMR , i have 100 shares @ 158 should i book the loss or hold it ? i m long term investor

ambareeshbaliga: As I have said earlier, GMR Infra is a buy and hence you could average out by buying another 50 or 100 shares @ current levels

nicos: Any luck on Allsec Tech

ambareeshbaliga: Allsec could be a dark horse. We had Funds getting in @ 268/- but this stock fell due to rupee appreciation, a few of their clients passing through subprime crisis etc which reflected in the their performance. I beleive the company should turn around by Q2 FY09 and with rupee in it's favour and few new contracts including Indian Customers in their kitty, I would be a buyer @ current levels.

SunnyMurthy: Good time to pick IT stocks?

ambareeshbaliga: We were suggesting buying IT sector especially the large caps ones since late last year when i was being dumped by everyone. At current valuations I think one should be selling these and getting into mid cap IT stocks which are not yet reflecting the change in mood.

sandeeparora9: Dear Ambareesh How much more downside for the markets from current levels do you see in the near future and should we start deploying our money or wait for some more time?

ambareeshbaliga: I think you should be buying @ current levels as the valuations have come to very attractive levels. The bottom - no one knows - but any further fall from here is a great opportunity for those who have both - the money and patience.

damanifan: YOUR TOP 5 MIDCAP PICK

ambareeshbaliga: Subex, Bartronics, Bata India, Thermax and Meghmani

patil77: sir,your views on noida toll bridge?

ambareeshbaliga: Look at buying Noida closer to 35/36 levels

Bharat25: Can Nifty be able to touch 4750-4800 levels next week.

ambareeshbaliga: Next week it seems difficult but before the end of this series, Yes

damanifan: WHICH COMPANIES DO YOU THINK WILL BENEFIT MOST FROM THE HIGH CRUDE PRICES ????.................

ambareeshbaliga: Cairn India --- ONGC - to a small extent. Also Aban, HOEC and don't forget assam company which has interest in oil fields

mithpreeth: Can I average L&T at current levels?

ambareeshbaliga: if you have bought @ 3300+ then you should average @ below 2600. Post Bonus, you will recover your losses

gnr@lntecc.com: Aventis bought @884/- can i hold or shift to better pharma counter for better return? Can you pl suggest?

ambareeshbaliga: Indian Pharma stocks have performed well in the recent past as compared to MNCs. But Aventis @ 734 is a decent bet. i would suggest average.

purushottam_c: There are so many rumours about 12k ,13k sensex. what to do sir ?

ambareeshbaliga: You hear 10K when the markets are coming down and 21 to 25K when the markets are going up. Smart guys are playing between these two. Buy closer to 14/15K and sell closer to 17/18K

jason123: Mr. Ambareeshbaliga-Any luck on Spice Communications

ambareeshbaliga: Don't track Spice Communications

sailaru: sir whats your take on subex now earlier you where bullish on the counter?

ambareeshbaliga: We still stick to our stand. We have bought more @ current levels.

nilayhir: Hello sir, see after long time, try to come atleast fortnightly.anyway again the market shows the mayham but ya we were prepared for that now.I really stuck on Rpower I dont know wat to do with that sell it and put money in sure upside stock or wait for come to Break even level pls fire ur views

ambareeshbaliga: Had gone on vacation after booking profits above 17K. RPower - not much hope immediately. The trigger of the bonus is over. Hold for the time being

sailaru: can i buy ambuja cement cmp?

ambareeshbaliga: Although we haven't been too bullish on Cement but Ambuja @ 81/- is a decent buy for medium term. Exit closer to 100/-

damanifan: WHAT KIND OF LEVELS YOU SEE IN SUBEX IN 2 YEARS...........???

ambareeshbaliga: 2 years we should be closer to 25K - that's in year 2010/11

Decontrolling of Sugar Industry

2008-06-10T15:07:00.002+05:30

The Indian Government is mulling over a fresh proposal for decontrol of the sugar industry. A draft note, recommending dismantling of the 10 percent levy imposed on mills along with the release mechanism& governing their balance 90 per cent free sale quota (FSQ), is currently before the Union Agriculture and Food Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar's consideration.

Final note

The draft note was sent recently to Mr Pawar, who will now take a call based on inputs and comments from other concerned Ministries (Finance, Commerce & Industry, etc). Once that is done, a final note would be prepared for the Cabinet, which could happen within the next 2-3 months, official sources told Business Line.
Mills are now obliged to deliver 10 per cent of their production to the Government as levy for the public distribution system. Even for the remaining 10 per cent FSQ that can be sold in the open market, the Centre decides (‘releases’) the quantum of such sugar to be offloaded by each mill in a particular month.

1st phase

The Centre favours phased decontrol. In the first phase, both the levy as well as the monthly release mechanism will be done away with. De-reservation of cane area, removal of restrictions on setting up of factories (including maintenance of a minimum 15 km radial distance between two mills) and other cane-specific reforms would be taken up in the subsequent phase, the sources said.
The first phase may be implemented before the start of the ensuing 2008-09 sugar season (October-September).

Buffer stocks

An indication to this effect was the Centre's recent decision to take the 20 lakh tonnes (lt) buffer stock – maintained through exchequer support for the period from May 1, 2007 to April 30, 2008 -- out of the FSQ once it lapsed.
“The factories were allowed to freely sell their individual buffer allocations the moment it lapsed. There were no separate mill-wise FSQ release orders for the dismantled 20 lt,” the sources pointed out.
A similar 30 lt buffer stock created for one year from August 1, 2007 is slated to lapse on July 31. “If this lapsed buffer quantity is also going to be permitted to be sold freely from August 1, it would clearly signal the Centre’s inclination to kick-start the decontrol process from the new season,” they noted.
While the industry is unanimously backing sugar decontrol, for the Centre (especially the Finance Ministry), the main concern is over any possible impact on prices in an election year.

Better timing

But given the overall comfortable supply position, any significant price increase is unlikely.
In fact, the present timing for decontrol could not be better, the sources held.
The opposition to decontrol may come more from growers, who would like it to be extended to cane. Currently, every mill has a cane area ‘reserved’ for it, with growers being bound to the particular factory, even if it pays a lower price or defaults in making payments. Sensing a buyer’s market for cane in the coming season, growers in parts of Uttar Pradesh have been preventing officials from entering villages for carrying out pre-reservation surveys.

Constraints

“The constraint for the Centre is this case is the existence of separate legislations regulating cane supplies in UP and Bihar. So, even if the Centre rescinds its own Sugarcane Control Order under the Essential Commodities Act, it cannot enforce cane de-reservation unless there is cooperation from the State Governments concerned”, the sources opined.

Danske FootBall

2008-06-10T14:58:00.002+05:30

Du kender sikkert allerede Oddsets tv-reklamer, hvor kvinder står helt af overfor fodbold-udtryk som ”midtbanegeneral” eller ”målmand på skovtur”. Nu rykker Oddset på nettet, og temaet er det samme: Der er så meget kvinder ikke forstår! Det betyder et site fyldt med gadgets, manderetter og naturligvis sport. Kort sagt: et drengerøvssite! Du kan blandt andet more dig over superpinlige kommentarer - leveret af brugernes kærester. Og kan din kæreste matche udtalelser som: ”Slår fem ens fyldt hus?”, så er du med i kampløbet om et pizza-gavekort på 5000 kr. På sitet er der dømt ruccola-fri zone. I stedet tilbyder vores madgenerator herlige retter som kødsalat eller Premier League gryde. Og skulle du ikke have fået kød nok, kan du downloade et bacon-ur og bruge det som screensaver på din computer. Tjek også videogalleriet med sportsklip, Jannis blog, tv-oversigten, og Dagens Kampe. Eller mød et par eksemplarer af den absolutte spil-elite i Odds 1000-klubben.

English conversion

You know probably already Oddset's television-advertising, where women face completely off football expressions as a "midfield general" or "goalkeeper on picnic".

Now Odds on the net moves, and the theme is the same:

There is as much women do not understand!

That means a site filled with gadgetly, man rights and of course sport.

In short:

a drengerøv-site!

You can for instance be amused at super-embarrassing comments - delivered by the users' girl friends.

And can your sweetheart match statements like:

"Do five Beat one's full house?", ...

you are along at the fight race about a pizza gift token of 5000 DKK.

On the site there is judged ruccola-free zone.

Instead our food generator offers splendid rights as a meat salad or Premier League pot.

And should you not have had meat enough, you can download a bacon clock and use it as screensaver in your computer.

Check also Videogalleriet with sport clips, Janni's Blog, the television-overview, and Dagens Kampe.

Or meet a couple of copies of that abso ...

Check also Videogalleriet with sport clips, Janni's Blog, the television-overview, and Dagens Kampe.

Or meet a couple of copies of the absolute game élite in the Odds 1000-club.

www.derersaamegetkvinderikkeforstaar.dk

Sonofon Offers Big Summer Savings

2008-06-10T14:49:00.002+05:30

Har I tjekket huset på SONOFON, hvor medarbejdere giver den gas? Det er ret cool og vist nok første gang, at der er nogen, der har lavet et website med rigtige mennesker fra deres reklamer og så fede features. I øvrigt er der free stuff retro-ringetoner i lokalet øverst oppe i huset. Tjek i øvrigt manden i iderummet som får Sonofon Go aften-pigen fra gamle dage frem på væggen. Pigen fra kundeservice! Total waste of money at beholde sin fastnettelefon abonnement når nummeret kan overføres til Sonofon. Der er ret meget at spare .. +1.000 Kr.! Butiksmedarbejderen i Sonofon Butikken giver en go rundtur i yndlingsnummer og hvorfor man bør lægge sit fastnetnummer over på mobilen! Der er en lommeregner, hvor man kan se sin egen besparelse.

Gratis Ringetoner

Beregn din besparelse pånglingsnummer

English Translation

Have you checked the house on http://www.sonofon.dk, where employees give that gas?

It's rather cool and probably the first time that there is somebody, who has made a web site with real human beings from their advertising and so great features.

By the way there are free stuff retro-ringing tones at the room at the top in the house.

Check the man by the way at the idea space that makes the Sonofon Go evening girl drop old days forward on the wall.

The girl from customer service!

Waste two of money to keep one's fastnet-telephone subscription when the number can be transferred for Sonofon.

There is a lot to save..

+1.000 DKK.!

The shop employee in Sonofon Butikken gives an energy roundtrip in favourite number and why one ought to put one's fastnet-number over on the mobile phone!

There is a pocket calculator, where you can see one's own saving.

FREE Ring Tones

Calculate You Savings

GDP Maintained - Dalal Street Cheered

2008-05-30T18:17:00.003+05:30

It was a crucial Friday as not just the inflation figures but also the economic growth rates figures were to come and that was to decide the course of the markets today. Who would have imagined that one day, the ubiquitous broker on the Dalal Street, would be seen tracking the economic growth rates and inflation figures?

So, first the GDP figures came in and the markets were up, this was soon followed by the inflation figure of 8.1% for the week ended 17th May 2008. The markets had expected that the GDP figure for 2007-08 would have slipped down to 8-8.5 levels and was accordingly bracing itself. But when the figures were released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), there was cheer on Dalal Street as the GDP for 2007-08 was at 9%, though down from the 9.6% of 2006-07, there was relief that the slowdown was not as acute as expected.

Then came inflation at 8.1%. Though high, it was expected that given the coming week would surely have an inflation of over 8%. As the markets had already discounted this fact, the figure did not come as a shock and punters decided to once again concentrate on the trading.

For the year 2007-08, the sectors which recorded a higher growth vis-à-vis 2006-07 were agriculture; electricity, gas and water; trade, hotels, transport and communication and community, social and personal services. Infact the highest growth was recorded by the trade, hotels, transport and communication sector – it grew to 12% as against 11.8% last year. Eelectricity, gas and water supply, grew to 6.3% compared to 6% last year. The best news was the growth in agriculture, which has been a cause for major concern, it grew to 4.5% as against 3.8% in 2006-07.

In terms of fall, for FY08, mining & quarrying, manufacturing, construction and sector of financing, insurance, realty and business services recorded a fall in the growth rate. This has been mainly on account of the precipitated fall in the growth rate of these sectors in the fourth quarter of 2007-08.

Infact the Q4 figures, when compared on both, YoY as well as QoQ are sobering. YoY, for Q4FY08, GDP growth rate was at 8.8% compared to 9.7% in Q4FY07. The only sectors, which showed a higher growth rate were trade, hotels, transport and communication; and community, social and personal services. The steepest fall was in the manufacturing sector.

When compared QoQ, though the GDP growth rate is the same at 8.8%, it becomes clear that this probably was maintained on account of the growth in community, social and personal services; the only sector to have grown higher, while all the others recorded a steep fall - the highest being the fall in the growth rate of the agriculture, forestry and fishing; which fell from 6% in Q3 to a meager 2.9% in Q4.

Now the moot question – how does it look ahead from here? Well, the picture does look grim at this juncture. There is no doubt that the going is going to get tough. Just as the rest of the world is going through some major troubling times, India too would face the brunt of it all. Rising prices of commodities and crude would remain a cause for concern, so at least till first half of the current fiscal, things are expected to be difficult. Yet the GDP figures are expected to be maintained at levels of 8%. Inflation is a cause for concern and that would quite some time to taper off. One should get used to seeing 7-8% rates for some time now.

What we now need to see is the resilience of the Indian stock markets. If it could withstand the storm of the subprime crisis that drowned most of the world markets, surely, this too shall pass. At this juncture, it would foolish to expect a bull run but at the same time, it would be too cynical and pessimistic to expect a bearish tint. Markets would be range bound and we at Premium Investments, do not foresee a major mandi, as is being predicted by many. Wait and watch; invest only in large cap stocks, you can then withstand any storm. No rocket science here, just simple logic.

Bloggerwave - Blog your way to money

2008-05-30T17:57:00.001+05:30

Join Bloggerwave and write about an advertiser on your website. Simple isn't it. Find out yourself for more information. A brief description is below in two languages understandable by me, One is Danish and Other is English

Danish Language

Så er Bloggerwave klar til at modtage flere danske bloggere til vores side. Bloggerwave er en ny mulighed for bloggere hvor de kan tjene penge på at blogge om diverse virksomheder, produkter mm. Bloggerwave arbejder sammen med forskellige bureauer og vil hele tiden finde nye spændende emner, som bloggere kan give deres ærlige mening og holdning omkring. Bloggerwave's koncept er kendt fra USA hvor det har eksistret en del år efterhånden og bliver mere og mere udbredt som et alternativ til adsense, banner reklamer eller bare traditionel reklame. Hop på vognen og begynd at tjene penge med Bloggerwave idag. se mere på bloggerwave.dk

English Translation

Bloggerwave is ready to receive more Danish bloggers to our page.

Bloggerwave is a new possibility of Blogs where they can make money on that blogge about various companies, products etc.

Bloggerwave works together with different bureaus and will all the time find new exciting subjects, bloggers can make their honest sense and point of view about.

Bloggerwave's concept is known from the US where it has the ex-leaf fat a fair amount of year gradually and is more and more spread out like an alternative to adsense, banner advertising or just traditional advertisement.

So,Jump on board and start to make money with Bloggerwave today.

Vote or Get Vote, Join Look Of the Year Contest

2008-05-30T17:27:00.004+05:30

Lookoftheyear is the latest way to get recognized, winning a 10,000 USD price or get spotted by an agency for model career.

Look Of The Year are looking for people from all over the world to send in their best pictures so use this chance to be the next model working in Paris, New York or Milan.

Join Look of the year today and start your new life together with beautiful people from all over the world.

Click the link to Vote Today. Join to get the Vote.

US Dollar Astro Prediction plus Crude Oil

2008-04-29T20:54:00.001+05:30

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Technical analysis for crude oil
Crude oil prices hit an all time high near $120 a barrel after a strike in a refinery caused a pipeline system to shut down in UK. The pipeline usually delivers a third of Britain's North Sea oil to refineries which is more than 700,000 barrels of oil per day. In addition to that, 5 police officers were killed by unknown gunmen in oil-rich southern Nigeria which only added to supply fears of consumers while boosting crude oil prices. Friday, the contract gained $2.46 as it closed at $118.52 while recording a high of $119.55 per barrel and a low of $114.51 per barrel. Today oil so far recorded an all time high of $119.93 per barrel as the output in Nigeria declined by 50% since April 25 due to what we mentioned above, which is adding to economies inflationary pressure as oil prices continue to rise. Oil prices rally is also supported by the weakening dollar in which investors enter crude oil markets as a hedge against inflation and the falling greenback as it becomes cheaper for foreign investors as they hold a stronger currency. Today, the market opened at $118.94 which is the lowest set until now
Seeing that there are geopolitical tensions, this will only cause oil prices to continue forming bullish waves. By this investors are assured as they sit around and make profits, while consumers hope this will soon end as the summer season is coming just around the corner where massive demand on gasoline is seen with the known driving season.All Above facts are indicating thar crude oil is further looking strong but Financial astrology says now Honeymoon of Crude oil bull's is over any time big vertical fall is expected in World future market. Only thing required is Patience . Traders may go for short in crude oil with Stop loss US$ 122 for traget Us $ 115 very shortly. As per stars this time Not only crude oil but also all most all commodities were falling from their higest hights . Us dollars are almost at edge of bouncing back . I shall not surprice if Us dollars shoot up like rocket aginst all Market expert views. This artical may please save as record for future refrence . As i always say that no analysis is compleate unless time frame is define . So this above vertical fall is expected within 10 to 15 trading days. Remember all hedgefunds brokrage hosue will surprice to see Us dollars shoot up.
All the best to all the traders However one can follow technical data in crude oil.

Support
119.17 118.72 118.43 118.21 117.71
Resistance 119.94, 120.20 120.49 120.88 121.16

Recommendation- Sell Crude oil at higher levels .

Happy trading

Lt Col Ajay ( 28th April,2008)
Astromoneyguru
CEO
www.astromoneyguru.com

RBI hikes CRR - Bad Bad too Bad!!

2008-04-17T21:14:00.001+05:30

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Mumbai: The Reserve Bank on 17 April hiked Cash Reserve Ratio, the amount of depositors’ money that banks need to park with it, by 0.5% to tighten money supply, as part of concerted efforts with the government to ease inflation.
The hike, which would take CRR to 8%, will come into effect in two tranches of 0.25% on 26 April and 10 May, the central bank said in a statement here.
The unscheduled hike comes ahead of RBI’s annual credit policy for 2008-09 to be unveiled on 29 April.

The measure would suck out liquidity to the tune of Rs18,500 crore from the banking system and would leave banks with less money to lend and in turn would help cool inflation that is at a three-year high of 7.14%.
“In the light of the current macro-economic, monetary and anticipated liquidity conditions, and with a view to containing inflation expectations, it is essential to take appropriate action on an urgent basis,” RBI said in a statement.
The CRR hike comes within a day of Finance Minister P Chidambaram assuring the Lok Sabha that RBI will assess the monetary situation and take appropriate action.
“On a review of current liquidity situation, it is considered desirable to increase the CRR of the scheduled commercial banks... by 50 basis points to 8% in two stages,” the apex bank said.

Giving the rationale for the increase in CRR, RBI said year-on-year Wholesale Price Index-based inflation, which was 3.83% on 12 January 2008 (at the time of announcement of third quarterly review of credit policy), increased to 7.41% on 29 March and remained at 7.14% as on 5 April and its overall impact on inflation expectations requires to be monitored and moderated.

Telecom Infrastructure Services

2008-04-12T20:27:00.000+05:30

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TBR Reports Telecom Infrastructure Services Market Grew to $70 Billion in 2007

Ericsson Global Services Maintains Market Share Lead, Alcatel-Lucent Services, Nokia Siemens Networks Services Gain Ground

HAMPTON, N.H. (April 10, 2008) — Global suppliers of services for telecom operators saw revenue increases across the board in 2007 as the total market grew to $70 billion, an 8% increase over 2006, according to Technology Business Research’s Telecom Infrastructure Services (TIS) Market Model.

The TIS Market Model tracks market share of leading telecom equipment suppliers and provides forecasts for the rapidly-evolving market for selling deployment, maintenance, consulting & integration and managed services to telecom service providers.

In 2007, Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks, Huawei, and other vendors stepped up their focus on services businesses to help insulate against slowing demand for telecom equipment. Meanwhile, the increasing intersection of network and IT worlds is creating significant opportunities for IT vendors such as IBM, HP, Accenture and EDS to seize growth opportunities within telco operator accounts and for traditional infrastructure vendors to expand into more software-centric parts of the network, particularly OSS/BSS. Beyond the major players, a second tier of network and software vendors are stepping up their systems integration and consulting initiatives.

As with any rapidly growing and converging market, determining the magnitude of the market as a whole, its various segments and the market share of major players are critical steps toward understanding the strategies that a firm should apply to win additional business.

Key findings:

· After announcing a handful of managed services contracts in 2006, suppliers reported a surge in 2007, with more than 100 deals announced. While interest in outsourcing remains low in North America, other regions, especially Western Europe, are seeing increased activity.

· Completion of mergers among suppliers has tightened the competition among the three largest telecom suppliers. TBR believes that Ericsson will face significant challenges to its market leadership as both Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens Networks become more aggressive in the network services space.

· While IBM continues to lead large IT systems integrators in revenue from service providers, HP markedly increased its position in 2007 bringing it into a virtual tie for the lead among these players.

· While network equipment spending slowed

INDIA ACQUISITION: Etisalat is planning to enter Indian Telecom Space

2008-04-11T02:27:00.000+05:30

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INDIA ACQUISITION: Etisalat is planning to enter the massive Indian mobile phone market (Getty Images)

UAE telecom Etisalat said it is in talks with several Indian telecoms companies about making an acquisition to enter the world's second-largest mobile phone market.

"We are hoping to move to the next stage before the summer," Etisalat Chairman Mohammed Omran told newswire Reuters on Wednesday.

"The next stage would be finalising a deal, making an acquisition." Omran declined to be more specific.

Etisalat, the second-largest Arab telecoms company by market value, said last week it had talks with India's Spice Communications and others about possibly making an investment to enter the Indian telecoms market.

Etisalat is also looking at entering Vietnam, Omran said, without being more specific, and plans to expand in Africa.

17 important tax-free items you can use for tax planning

2008-04-02T18:30:00.003+05:30

The following are 17 important items of income, which are fully exempt from income tax and which a resident individual Indian assessee can use with profit for the purpose of tax planning.

1. Agricultural income

Under the provisions of Section 10(1) of the Income Tax Act, agricultural income is fully exempt from income tax.

However, for individuals or HUFs when agricultural income is in excess of Rs 5,000, it is aggregated with the total income for the purposes of computing tax on the total income in a manner which results into "no" tax on agricultural income but an increased income tax on the other income.

Agricultural income which fulfils the above conditions is completely exempt from tax. The manner of calculating tax on total income and agricultural income, is explained in the following illustration:

Illustration

For FY 2008-09 (assessment year 2009-10), a male individual has a total income from trading in textiles amounting to Rs 1,52,000; besides, he has earned Rs 40,000 as income from agriculture.

The income tax payable by him will be computed as under:

On the first Rs 150,000 of the taxable non-agricultural income: Nil
On the next Rs 40,000 of agricultural income (falling under 10% slab): Nil
On the next Rs 2,000 of taxable non-agricultural income @ 10 per cent: Rs 200
Income tax on aggregated income of Rs 152,000 + Rs 40,000 = Rs 192,000: Rs 200

2. Receipts from Hindu Undivided Family (HUF)

Any sum received by an individual as a member of a Hindu Undivided Family, where the said sum has been paid out of the income of the family, or, in the case of an impartible estate, where such sum has been paid out of the income of the estate belonging to the family, is completely exempt from income tax in the hands of an individual member of the family under Section 10(2).

3. Share from a partnership firm

Under the provisions of Section 10(2A), in the case of a person being a partner of a firm which is separately assessed as such, his share in the total income of the firm is completely exempt from income tax since AY 1993-94.

For this purpose, the share of a partner in the total income of a firm separately assessed as such would be an amount which bears to the total income of the firm the same share as the amount of the share in the profits of the firm in accordance with the partnership deed bears to such profits.

4. Allowance for foreign service

Any allowances or perquisites paid or allowed as such outside India by the Government to a citizen of India, rendering service outside India, are completely exempt from tax under Section 10(7). This provision can be taken advantage of by the citizens of India who are in government service so that they can accumulate tax-free perquisites and allowances received outside India.

5. Gratuities

Under the provisions of Section 10(10) of the IT Act, any death-cum-retirement gratuity of a government servant is completely exempt from income tax. However, in respect of private sector employees gratuity received on retirement or on becoming incapacitated or on termination or any gratuity received by his widow, children or dependants on his death is exempt subject to certain conditions.

The maximum amount of exemption is Rs. 3,50,000;. Of course, this is further subject to certain other limits like the one half-month's salary for each year of completed service, calculated on the basis of average salary for the 10 months immediately preceding the year in which the gratuity is paid or 20 months' salary as calculated. Thus, the least of these items is exempt from income tax under Section 10(10).

6. Commutation of pension

The entire amount of any payment in commutation of pension by a government servant or any payment in commutation of pension from LIC [Get Quote] pension fund is exempt from income tax under Section 10(10A) of IT Act.

However, in respect of private sector employees, only the following amount of commuted pension is exempt, namely: (a) Where the employee received any gratuity, the commuted value of one-third of the pension which he is normally entitled to receive; and (b) In any other case, the commuted value of half of such pension.

It may be noted here that the monthly pension receivable by a pensioner is liable to full income tax like any other item of salary or income and no standard deduction is now available in respect of pension received by a tax payer.

7. Leave salary of central government employees

Under Section 10(10AA) the maximum amount receivable by the employees of central government as cash equivalent to the leave salary in respect of earned leave at their credit upto 10 months' leave at the time of their retirement, whether on superannuation or otherwise, would be Rs. 3,00,000.

8. Voluntary retirement or separation payment

Under the provisions of Section 10(10C), any amount received by an employee of a public sector company or of any other company or of a local authority or a statutory authority or a cooperative society or university or IIT or IIM at the time of his voluntary retirement (VR) or voluntary separation in accordance with any scheme or schemes of VR as per Rule 2BA, is completely exempt from tax. The maximum amount of money received at such VR which is so exempt is Rs. 500,000.

9. Life insurance receipts

Under Section 10(10D), any sum received under a Life Insurance Policy (LIP), including the sum allocated by way of bonus on such policy, other than u/s 80DDA or under a Keyman Insurance Policy, or under an insurance policy issued on or after 1.4.2003 in respect of which the premium payable for any of the years during the term of the policy exceeds 20 per cent of the actual capital sum assured, is fully exempt from tax.

However, all moneys received on death of the insured are fully exempt from tax Thus, generally moneys received from life insurance policies whether from the Life Insurance Corporation or any other private insurance company would be exempt from income tax.

10. Payment received from provident funds

Under the provisions of Sections 10(11), (12) and (13) any payment from a government or recognised provident fund (PF) or approved superannuation fund, or PPF is exempt from income tax.

11. Certain types of interest payment

There are certain types of interest payments which are fully exempt from income tax u/s 10 (15). These are described below:

(i) Income by way of interest, premium on redemption or other payment on such securities, bonds, annuity certificates, savings certificates, other certificates issued by the Central Government and deposits as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, specify in this behalf.
(iia) In the case of an individual or a Hindu Undivided Family, interest on such capital investment bonds as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, specify in this behalf (i.e. 7 Capital Investment Bonds);
(iib) In the case of an individual or a Hindu Undivided Family, interest on such Relief Bonds as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, specify in this behalf (i.e., 9 per cent or 8.5 per cent or 8 per cent or 7 per cent Relief Bonds); (iid) Interest on NRI bonds;
(iiia) Interest on securities held by the issue department of the Central Bank of Ceylon constituted under the Ceylon Monetary Law Act, 1949;
(iiib) Interest payable to any bank incorporated in a country outside India and authorised to perform central banking functions in that country on any deposits made by it, with the approval of the Reserve Bank of India [Get Quote] or with any scheduled bank;
(iv) Certain interest payable by Government or a local authority on moneys borrowed by it, including hedging charges on currency fluctuation (from the AY 2000-2001), etc.;
(v) Interest on Gold Deposit Bonds;
(vi) Interest on certain deposits are: Bhopal Gas victims;
(vii) Interest on bonds of local authorities as notified,
(viii) Interest on 6.5 per cent Savings Bonds [Exempt] issued by the RBI, and
(ix) Stipulated new tax free bonds to be notified from time to time.

12. Scholarship and awards, etc

Any kind of scholarship granted to meet the cost of education is exempt from tax under Section 10(16). Similarly, certain awards and rewards, etc. are completely exempt from tax under Section 10(17A), for example, Lakhotia Puraskar of Rs 100,000 awarded to the best Rajasthani author, every year under Notification No. 199/28/95-IT (A-I) dated 22-4-1996.

Any daily allowance received by a Member of Parliament or by an MLA or any member of any Committee of Parliament or State legislature is also exempt from tax under Section 10(17).

13. Gallantry awards, etc. -- Section 10(18)

The Finance Act, 1999 has, with effect from AY 2000-2001, provided for complete exemption for the pension and family pension of Gallantry Award Winners like Paramvir Chakra, Mahavir Chakra, and Vir Chakra and also other Gallantry Award winners notified by the Central Government.

14. Dividends on shares and units -- Section 10(34) & (35)

With effect from the Assessment Year 2004-05, the dividend income and income of units of mutual funds received by the assessee completely exempt from income tax.

15. Long-term capital gains of transfer of securities -- Section 10(38)

With effect from FY 2004-05, any income arising to a taxpayer on account of sale of long-term capital asset being securities is completely outside the purview of tax liability especially when the transaction has been subjected to Securities Transaction Tax (STT).

Thus, if the shares of any company listed in the stock exchange are sold after holding it for a minimum period of one year then there will be no liability to payment of capital gains. This provision would even apply for the old shares which are held by an assessee and are sold after the Finance (No.2) Act, 2004 came into force.

16. Amount received by way of gift, etc -- Section 10(39)

As per the Finance (No. 2) Act, 2004, gift, etc. received after 1-9-2004 by an individual or an HUF whether in cash or by way of credit, etc. is being subjected to tax if the same is not received from a stipulated relative. Section 10(39) provides that the amount received to the extent of Rs 50,000 will, however, be exempt from the purview of tax payment.

Similarly, amount received on the occasion of marriage from non-relatives, etc. would also be exempted. It may be noted that the gift from relatives, as specified in the section can be received without any upper limit.

17. Tax exemption regarding reverse mortgage scheme -- sections 2(47) and 47(x)

Any transfer of a capital asset in a transaction of reverse mortgage for senior citizens under a scheme made and notified by the Central Government would not be regarded as a transfer and therefore would not attract capital gains tax. The loan amount would also be exempt from tax. These amendments by the Finance Bill, 2008 apply from FY 2007-08 onwards.

[Excerpt from How to Save Income Tax through Tax Planning (AY 2009-10) by R N Lakhotia and Subhash Lakhotia, two of India's top taxation experts.

Astro Prediction of Crude Oil futures

2008-03-28T02:17:00.001+05:30

Crude Oil rates have been cause of concern for USA. Prices have been like 'never seen before'. This has not only shaken the USA but many other countries too. There has been lot of speculation on this by Astrologers and market analysts. Ganesha would like to throw light on the subject with help of Astrology.

Watery Signs
Crude Oil is primarily ruled by Sign Pisces. It being liquid, planetary movements in Watery Signs would have more influence on it. As per Western Astrology System, Mars is transiting through Cancer at present. On 18th March 2008, prices of Crude Oil were very high. Interesting point to observe is, 18 number is ruled by Mars being total of 9. Complete total of the day was 22. Number two is ruled by Moon and it is repeated twice here. If we boil this down to single digit, it comes to 4 which is ruled by Uranus. So Mars and Uranus played Major role as per Numerology too. Uranus is passing through Pisces at present so we have seen major activities in the oil markets with Mars in Cancer and Uranus in Pisces.

Nearest future of Crude Oil
Between 20th to 26th April 2008 there may be major change in the trend of Crude Oil prices, states Ganesha. This is because Mars and Uranus will form Trine Aspect with each other. AstroTechnically speaking, Trine aspects are liable for bearish trend but natural malefic planets are responsible for bullish trend. Mercury and Venus both would have crossed Pisces within first week of April 2008. Sun will be in Aries. In such case, major influence on Watery Signs would be of Uranus and Mars. In such case, Ganesha's analysis says that crude oil is to reach climax in the month of April. Throughout the month we may see bullish trend barring some minor bearish moments. After 26th April 2008 prices may start going down a bit but it may come down noticeably only after 10th May 2008, says Ganesha.

Ganesha wishes all the good luck to Oil Traders.

Five Offshore Outsourcing Predictions For 2008

2008-03-21T21:41:00.001+05:30

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Plenty of change lies ahead in the area of offshore outsourcing, which has evolved from a little-used practice to a mature industry in less than 10 years. Here are five predictions for offshore outsourcing in 2008:

1) Businesses that use offshore outsourcing will devote more time and effort to ensuring the success of such projects. Occasional problems with bad software code, miscommunications, and high staff turnover haven't been enough to turn companies away en masse from offshore outsourcing -- many are too hooked on the personnel cost savings -- but they've been enough to demand greater oversight on offshore deals. This also will have some companies working in closer partnership with their offshore providers.

2) More offshore work will go to Latin America, China, Eastern Europe, and other low-cost locations as India struggles to deal with its tightening IT talent pool. Service providers in India say they're working hard on the problem, going as far as to retrain science graduates to become technologists and scouring the rural regions of India for talent. But these measures smack of desperation, and India's talent problem isn't going away anytime soon.

3) India IT salaries will continue their annual double-digit increases, rising perhaps even higher than the 15% range suggested by Indian service providers, but not so much that U.S. companies won't continue to be attracted by the cost savings/skill level combo offered by Indian technologists.

4) India will decline as a location for telephone call center jobs for U.S.-based companies. People are impatient by nature, and even more so when on the phone with a customer service rep talking about a bill they owe or a problematic product they've purchased. Add even a slight language barrier, and you've got customers demanding to speak to managers and e-mailing complaints. Meanwhile, turnover rates for call center reps serving customers during U.S. daylight hours are high in India, since they're night-time jobs there. Even high-level execs at India offshore firms have admitted to me that call center work is an increasingly unattractive business. Look for U.S. companies to bulk up call center staffs in rural, low-cost areas of the U.S. where labor is cheap, and in Canada, for their English-speaking customers.

5) If the economy tanks in the next year, offshore outsourcing will suddenly become a much more interesting topic on the U.S. presidential campaign trail. The U.S. unemployment rate for IT is still very healthy right now, about 2%, and most Web-based development skills are in high demand. But if a recession hits, layoffs may follow, and presidential candidates will be forced to be more definitive on the topic than they've been to date.

India showing signs of so called Recession with fattening Inflation

2008-03-13T16:47:00.001+05:30

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When you keep on pushing things under the carpet to make the room look good, eventually, after some time, all that which was pushed under the carpet is bound to start coming out from the other end.

That, in a nutshell explains the situation of the Indian economy right now. In a bid to constantly present a very clean picture, to reflect a regime of low inflation, the Govt, with its eyes on the Election Polls by 2009, seems to be now running into losing grounds. Trying to constantly keep a lid on inflation, looks like the Govt forgot to pay attention to the effect it might have on the growth of the Indian economy.
The latest growth figures for the economy have been alarming, to say the least. Alarming because it is like a procrastination of the times ahead. The latest data on Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2008 showed that the overall index grew by 5.3% against a 11.6% growth in January 2007. This slowdown was led by fall in other sectors like mining (1.8% growth against 7.7%), manufacturing (5.9% against 12.3%) and electricity generation (3.3% against 8.3%). Overall IIP for April-January 2007-08 was down at 8.7% against 11.2% recorded in April-January 2006-07.

Most worrisome has been the fall in the growth of the capital goods sector, which fell to a meager 2.1%. A fall in the manufacturing sector, along with a fall in the capital goods sectors indicates that enough investments are not coming in, leaving a large gap between growth rate and the investments. The growth rate in the capital goods sector has always been very robust, it was at 24.5% in November 2007 and 16.6% in December and just 2.1% in January is quite shocking.

Economists say that the biggest culprit is the rising interest rates, which seems to have finally taken its toll. The Govt, in a bid to keep the inflation under control, has been hiking interest rates when world over there has been a fall in the interest rates. And this concerted effort on curbing inflation, left the growth rates out in the cold. And unfortunately, this entire effort of the Govt to curb inflation is also getting reduced to nothing as the ugly head of prices is now expected to remain high for some time now. The rising price of food grains and the spiraling price of oil is all having its toll. This is a worldwide issue and not just India, that’s the only solace we have. World over, inflation is expected to remain high and India will be no exception.

So what did the Govt gain? Through its entire tenure, the Govt spent all efforts on keeping a lid on inflation and now this lid is itself is threatening to blowup. So right now, inflation is also spiraling and growth is also showing signs of slowing down. As our editor, Mr.SP Tulsian, aptly describes it, “the Govt put all its efforts on controlling the cold (inflation) not knowing that pneumonia (growth) was already affecting the body.”

We cannot label this fall in industrial production as a one off blip. Infact it has been more of a falling trend in this entire fiscal. The industrial production, YoY, from April to January in this fiscal has been up only four times – October, August, June and April. The biggest fall happened for the first time in July 2007, IIP fell from 13.2% to 7.1% and then in November from 15.8% to 5.3%. If this falling trend has been so clearly written on the wall, how come the Govt was unperturbed and took no corrective measures to curb this fall? Isn’t the sacrifice of growth rate at the altar of inflation (which as such stands futile today) a completely failed exercise?

The stock markets have not taken too kindly to this sobering piece of news. It reacted with a fall of over 400points at the opening bell itself. So if the market also continues to fall, what could probably keep the FIIs attached to the Indian markets? More the market falls and more the economy starts showing signs of a slowdown, one can be sure that FIIs will pack their bags and leave.

Falling growth rate is more alarming for any economy, especially the Indian economy, which is so dependent on foreign capital inflow. Once the growth slows down, the FIIs will be the first to exist as for them India is just another market to make money. And once this outflow starts, interest rates will go up further and the entire process of generating more capex will slow down, which will mean a further slowdown in the entire industrial production.

One thing seems certain now – forget the 9% growth, we should now worry about achieveing a 8% growth at the end of next fiscal. The FM will keep on assuring that growth rates will not fall and his targets will be achieved but that could be more due to political compulsions. The Govt had better get its act together and work on increasing industrial production. Like Bernanke, India’s Y V Reddy can work on some rescue package and reduce interest rates, as that is the need of the hour.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION


MONTH	FY08(%)	FY07(%)
JAN	5.3	11.6
DEC	7.6	13.4
NOV	5.3	15.8
OCT	11.8	4.5
SEPT	6.4	12
AUG	10.7	10.3
JULY	7.10	13.20
JUNE	9.80	9.70
MAY	11.10	11.70
APRIL	13.60	9.90

Budget to stimulate investment, growth: Chidambaram

2008-02-29T15:03:00.001+05:30

Budget to stimulate investment, growth: Chidambaram: "Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Friday that the Union Budget for 2008-09 would stimulate investment and consequently growth."

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We will remain sympathetic to exporters: Chidambaram

2008-02-29T15:03:00.000+05:30

We will remain sympathetic to exporters: Chidambaram: "The government Friday said it will provide relief to exporters adversely hit by appreciation of the rupee against the dollar, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said."

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Income tax exemption limit raised

2008-02-29T15:02:00.000+05:30

Income tax exemption limit raised: "Bringing cheer to the salaried class, the slabs for personal income tax have been revised with the exemption limit being raised from Rs 1.10 lakh to Rs 1.50 lakh."

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HIGHLIGHTS - India's 2008/09 annual budget

2008-02-29T15:01:00.000+05:30

HIGHLIGHTS - India's 2008/09 annual budget: "NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram presented the Union Budget for 2008/09 on Friday, the fifth and final full one of the administration before elections due by May 2009."

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PreBudget 08-09: Sectoral Expectations and views on Thrust Areas, Aam Aadmi and Neutral Sectors, Can Power and Infrastructure be planned?

2008-02-28T19:13:00.002+05:30

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Pre Budget 2008 - 09 : IT sector
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Expectation of this sector are not much but the hopes are for Finance Minister to continue the benefits for IT Sector as the sector needs it much than ever it needed.

Indian software sector was growing at a blistering speed and it has grown by almost ten fold in last one decade. With increasing acceptance of Indian IT players in the global IT arena and incremental offshoring, Indian IT sector is well poised to cross $75 bn by 2010. In this scenario, companies with strong business models and global presence are well set to attain higher growth path in the coming years.

But despite the rupee appreciation and concerns over the slowdown in US, the Indian IT sector has shown some decent growth. As per some reports, the software and services exports are expected to touch the $40 billion mark in the financial year 2008, contributing more than 60% to the overall revenue including software exports, domestic and BPO segments.

For the Indian IT industry the US and UK still remains the largest markets as they both account almost 60% and 20% respectively. But due to minimize its risk, the industry has gradually increased its exposure to other geographies. Off late, in order to offset the weak Dollar, companies have increased their penetration to European countries.

Budget Expectation:
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Reduction in custom duties and excise duties on computers and peripherals could prove as a helping hand to all the PC manufactures and will also boost domestic IT industry. A reduction of excise duty from 16% to 12% is what the industry desires.

The Key hope of this sector is an extention of the tax holiday under the STPI scheme which has come to its closure term and will expire in March 2009. The companies will have to pay tax at an estimated rate of above 33% in the absence of these deductions. Profitability of the sector would be hit. Small and mid tier companies would be hit the most as it would be a tripple whammy of high rupee, appreciating salaries and also slowing US economy.

There is an option for the tax breaks and this is through SEZs. SEZs proved to be successful in attracting investments. But the SEZ approval requires clear guidelines and clarity for granting approval to setup SEZ. Also, SEZ policy favors firms with larger capacity to invest in infrastructure and it is not economical for mid and small size IT companies as most of them do not have the scale or the investment capacity needed for a SEZ and the rentals are expected to be significant as well.

Another area of government's focus would be on infrastructure in this budget which is very critical for the growth of IT sector but will impact all the sectors. Also the industry feels that there needs to be some incentive for creating Intellectual Property Rights. Revenues from IPR in the form of royalty/license fees should be exempted under Section 10 of the Income Tax act is another hope.

Our expectation :
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The STPI tax holiday beyond March 2009 is unlikely to be dealt in this budget as another budget is to be taken up before that. However there does appear to be a small chance of such a policy. A 100% tax holiday benefits for units in SEZ is something which is also unlikely..

In the last budget, 8% excise duty was levied on packaged software bought over the counter. It was good for the government but the negtaive was the level of piracy. Piracy in India is already well above the global average and after this fuels it further. However, there are not many companies in this space to benefit if this is done away with. All in all, nothing for the It sector per se but a big thrust on computerisation is possible and HCL Info may be a probable gainer here.
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Pre Budget 2008-09: Sugar Sector : Ethanol could be sweeter than sugar !
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At present 5% Ethanol blending is being adopted by the refineries as per the Central Government directive. Mandatory blending of 10% is expected by the end of the year. Ethanol has the potential to change the fortunes of the Sugar companies across the country. Constant rise in crude prices has also advocated blending of substitutes in the basic fuel in order to slash costs.

Industry expects Ethanol to be included in the bracket of the declared goods. That would result in uniform sales tax implied on Ethanol at 4% across the country. Currently Tax on ethanol is as high as 20% in some states. Industry also expects the excise duty on the manufacturing of Ethanol to be reduced from 16% implied currently.

Sugar industry is facing crisis at present. It requires some revival. The outcome of Sugar sector in Budget related to Ethanol is expected to be positive.

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Can ATF be a declared good.. But really not for the AAm Admi !
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Aviation Industry in India is one of the fastest growing aviation industries in the world. With the liberalization of the Indian aviation sector, aviation industry in India has undergone a rapid transformation. From being primarily a government-owned industry, the Indian aviation industry is now dominated by privately owned full service airlines and low cost carriers. Private airlines account for around 75% share of the domestic aviation market. Earlier, air travel was prefered by rich and Businessmen, but the competition has brought down the price and is now at a reach of a large number of people.

The Airline industry in India is plagued with several problems. These include high aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, rising labor costs and shortage of skilled labor, rapid fleet expansion, and intense price competition among the players. But one of the major challenges facing Indian aviation industry is infrastructure constraint. Airport infrastructure needs to be upgraded rapidly if the Indian aviation industry has to continue its success story. Some steps have been taken in this direction. Two of India's largest airports-Mumbai and New Delhi-were privatized recently. Two Greenfield airports are coming up at Bangalore and Hyderabad in Southern India. Investments are pouring into almost all aspects of the industry, including aircraft maintenance, pilot training and air cargo services. The future prospects of Indian aviation sector look bright.

Indian Aviation industry is in the hope to fly with some positive treatment for the Indian Budget 2008. Industry is reeling under huge losses expected to touch Rs 2,500 crore this fiscal year from the last years Rs 2,200 crore last years. Nothing much has changed. At least in terms of what the aviation industry is expecting from the up coming budget. Over the course of last year there has been significant lobbying for the rationalization of taxes on aviation turbine fuel (ATF). The industry seems to be waiting with bated breath that this might just be the budget where that issue is addressed this time. The Union minister of civil aviation is also backing the airlines with rising fuel prices; the incidence of sales tax is hurting the bottomlines quite negatively.

The Industry expectations are as follows:-
****************************************
India's air carriers want sales tax on jet fuel to be slashed to a uniform rate of 4% across the country and import duty to fall to 5% in the forthcoming budget to ease cost pressures. This Budget may classify ATF as "declared goods" which will attract sales tax at a flat 4% from the current 30% which varies from state to state. This will be a big positive for Airlines.

New norms for airlines to fly abroad (Under the prevailing norms, an airline which has a fleet of 20 aircraft, has operated in the domestic sector for five years and has a paid-up capital of Rs 100 Cr is allowed to fly abroad). Domestic players like Kingfisher and SpiceJet have been seeking relaxation of these norms, under which only Air India, Indian (now merged) and Jet Airways are currently defined as 'designated carriers' to operate overseas. The industry demand is to rationalize these norms which could support growth and resolve sudden domestic capacity.

Excessively priced jet fuel in India is a long-standing and an unresolved issue which is contributing to the large losses being incurred by the Indian airline industry. Jet fuel which is almost three fourths costlier than international benchmarks accounts for 40% of the operating cost of an Indian airline.

Extension of 72A benefits (i.e. carry forward of losses and unabsorbed depreciation on mergers) to private airlines.

Modernization will be of focus and also improved infrastructure. More airports and fiscal benefits for smaller city airports could make the development of such airports attractive. Some positives thus for GMR, Larsen etc who are in this business.
Our Expectation:
***************
The sales Tax issue is quite a micro one and tough to comment on whether this will materialize or not as States are not ready for this yet some have implemented. Important to note that the FM is unlikely to be giving much here whether in terms of time or benefits clearly as its not concerning the "Aam Admi". For now high crude prices will continue to weigh on the Airlines and also competitive pressures from the global players with lower fuel cost. Norms for airlines to fly abroad if rationalized would be quite a kicker for Spicejet and Airdeccan it at all. So watch out for this one if you wanto to fly with these stocks.

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Pre Budget 2008-09: Logistics: on road towards better times ahead
*******************************************************************

Phasing out of CST as per autopilot
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Indian Logistic & transport Industry is considered as the sunrise industry which where growth is around 7-8% pa. Logistics is a part of the service industry which is very closely linked to the economic growth. Economy continues to grow at 8-9% per annum. The industry experts predict a high double-digit growth rates for both outsourced and contract logistics in India. The logistics industry in India is estimated to be 13 % of GDP, which is higher than in most developed economies, presenting an opportunity to grow with better competitive advantage. This we believe is given that most of this is managed inhouse by corporates. This leaves huge scope for the service providers to take a slice of the same and also lead to lower costs to the corporates. We believe that the sustained growth in GDP will be supported by a rapidly growing Services industry which now accounts for roughly 55% of the GDP as compared to 50% last fiscal. Strong Foreign Direct Investment inflows (FDI) in automotive, capital goods, electronics, retail, and telecom has brought in big opportunities for service providers in India. To hold on to this growth, the Government has to make an easy way to boost the logistics sector.

Expectations from the Union Budget 2008-09 include more outlay for improving infrastructure, rationalization of tax structure, especially service tax. .

Companies under the logistics segment view Infrastructural bottlenecks and Central Sales Tax (CST) as main impediment in growth of the logistics sector. Currently the Central sales tax (CST) levy is 3% and this results in extra transportation costs and disintegrated supply chain. Phasing out of the CST & implementation of Single goods and service tax (GST) is expected to provide a major boost to the warehousing and transportation industry and make way for implementation of Hub and spoke model.

Industry expectations from the budget:
*************************************
The Central Sales Tax (CST) rate to be cut by 1% to 2 % and completely withdrawn by 2010-2011. This is a stated goal and that should see no change. Industry would be happy if this were to accelerate however the Government loss of revenue because of this are reasons why this cut may not be accelerated.

Blue print for substituting the complex web of central and state taxes on manufacturing and services with a single goods and services tax (GST) and maintaining the time frame for introduction of GST by 2010.

Integration of excise and service tax into Central Value Added Tax

Granting Industry status to warehousing and shipping industry thus getting access to preferential loans and grants.

Extension of tax benefit to rail haulage business as is available to CFS/ICD business

Freeing up of excess land and warehouses under Indian railways to private sector players, thus giving way for Public-Private Partnership. This will bring new venture out as Public-Private partnership where the private players will be given to use the additional facility of Indian Railways for the private use. This might significantly reduce the cost of building private warehouses

Our Expectations:
****************
The over all outcome is a positive one for the organized segment of this sector which is on the growing track. The CST reduction should continue as per plan. Its certainly a guess whether the FM will spend more time that this for this sector. The other demands of Tax benefis and warehouse land remains hopes but really no impact for the Aam Aadmi so may not see action.

With the phasing out of CST, the Logistics providers will be able to operate on a hub-and-spoke model. Thus, they can have large regional warehouses that can be used to supply cargo to different states, which in turn will lead to greater outsourcing of the job to logistics service providers. In short GST will have upper hand with logistics gaining from this curb. It makes sense to hasten the process but really budget hopes are minimal as these plans for now are on autopilot. Major beneficiaries of reform in tax structure would be Allcargo, Gati and TCI while Concor and Gateway Distriparks would benefit from sops for the rail haulage business.
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Pre Budget 2008-09: Cement: buiding hopes here is a bad idea !
************************************************************

Industry seeks to abolish import duty on coal & pet coke but VAT change seems quite unlikely !
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Indian cement industry has been on a roll, driven by a booming housing sector, increased activity in infrastructure and more than that the shortage on the supply side. India is the second largest producer of cement in the world behind China (1.2 bn tonnes). In 2007, India produced 165 mn tonnes of cement, accounting for 6% of global production of 2.8 bn tonnes. Cement demand is expected to grow, on an average, by 9-10% each year over the next 3 years due to healthy activity in end user segments like housing, infrastructure, commercial construction etc. The demand in India is mainly from housing (65%), infrastructure (20%) and capital investments from the corporate sector (15%).

Union Budget is expected to be neutral on the Cement industry. The cement industry witnessed a remarkable change in the past six months. Cement prices went up significantly and even the Govt allowed imports from Pakistan to meet the demand. Mean time the industry has witnessed a lot of issues such as removal of import duty, CVD, Special Additional Duty (SAD), Govt froze the Prices of cement coupled with higher excise duties in FY08. The Government is taking steps to enhance the cement supply in domestic markets to ensure check in prices. The last budget came down heavily with the dual excise structure.

Industry seeks to abolish import duty on coal and pet coke as against 5% now. This would help save power costs. Also it seeks that VAT on cement & clinker should be brought in line with similar construction material like steel to 4% from current 12.5%. This would bring down the cost of cement.

Our expectation:
**************
The cement sector is unlikely to be a favoured boy given what has happened all of last year. Duty on Coal and Pet coke could be reduced as the underlying prices have moved up. That is a possibility. However the VAT reduction seems quite unlikely.

This is the last budget for UPA Govt and importance will be given to infrastructure spending. This certainly keeps the demand for cement. But, the slowdown in economy and higher interest cost may put pressure on the growth. Cement prices have moved up significantly since the last Budget due to demand supply mismatch. But, correspondingly, power and fuel cost and other expenses have also rallied. Thus, the increase in cement prices doesn't help much to maintain the Ebidta margins. We expect cement prices to rise for another 2-3 quarters, but the higher supplies are expected from FY09-10 this could keep stock prices in check. We also expect costs to go up, this certainly hits the profitability of the company. We are cautious on this sector due to over capacity followed by rise in input costs.

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Pre Budget 08-09: Hotel Industry - FM may not time to check in !
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Tourism behind the growth and there is no end to hope

Surge in tourism industry has had a cascading effect on the hospitality Industry with an increase in the occupancy and average room rates. Tourism recorded a double digit growth in 2006 for the fourth consecutive year for in bound foreign arrivals. The occupancy rate is around 75-80%; also the Average Room rate has jumped over 20-25% from last year due steady increase in tourist inflows and business travelers. This has resulted in demand outstripping supply.

The Commonwealth Games at Delhi in 2010 has triggered capacity addition in and around NCR regions. The mismatch has paved ways for many overseas players to setup their base in India bringing in stiff competition for domestic players. Factors like medical tourism and increased sports and business activities are contributing to the growth of the hotel industry

Hotel sector expectation from this Budget:
*****************************************
1) Treatmeant for the hotel industry at par with other Infrastructure sectors and to provide Tax benefit under Sec 80IA of Income Tax Act is a demand for the hotel sector.
2) Another demand is to have Tax Depreciation for Hotel buildings to be rolled back to 20% from current 10%.
3) Tax Holiday for 5 year for two star, three-star, four-star hotels and convention centers in NCR area of Delhi, Faridabad, Gurgaon & Ghaziabad to speed up the infrastructure needs for the commonwealth Games.
The Hospitality industry has witnessed healthy growth as it is driven by a huge surge in both business and leisure travel by domestic and foreign tourists. The year 2007 was not only a record year for India's inbound tourism but was the fifth consecutive year showing a double-digit increase in foreign tourist arrivals.

Our Expectation:
***************
The budget is an event where the Industry approaches with open hands looking for sops. Industry status for the hotel industry should be on as it will ensure easier access for funds. Our sense is that this does not matter too much as the banking sector credit departments have matured. The tax holiday for hotels at NCR areas due to a sports event held at Delhi during 2010 is just being greedy. The costs are high but these are good times. This sector may not see too much focus largely as it is not seen as something which concerns the "Aam Aadmi".

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Power Sector : Power Play
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Huge Investment needed and some hopes there. Also Coal linkages is where the big triggers could be

India continues to face a huge deficit in Power and is targets an increase of 78,500 MW in generating capacity during the Eleventh plan (2007-12). The estimated funding requirement to implement the capacity addition programme along with requisite transmission & distribution network is estimated to be around Rs.10,60,000 crore. In order to accomplish such a huge target, the power industry expects some sops from this Budget.

Currently there is no regulatory authority for regulating coal prices. Also the coal mining by the power generators don't get any favorable tax incentives for undertaking this diverse initiative. Industry expects that CERC would be allocated the duty of regulating the coal prices. The mining activity would enjoy 10 year tax holiday.

The power sector sector has not been alloted infrastructure status. There are no tax sops for setting up critical power equipment manufacturing in the country. There is hope that Direct and Indirect tax benefits would be extended to the new manufacturers of critical power equipment. These measure could help to meet shortage of critical power equipments in the country.

Income-tax holiday for companies setting up UMPP is likely to be extended by seven years till 2017. Transmission companies associated with UMPP's may be exempt from paying Custom duty of 5-15% on import of equipments.
Excise duty on power equipments and other inputs is expected to be reduce from 16% to 8%. and countervailing duty on imports of equipment for power projects may be cut to 8%.

Power & Transmission projects not associated with UMPP's may have uniform duty structure of 5% Basic duty & 8% Countervailing duty.

Industry is expecting tax concessions by way of tax-free power bonds & enhancing the limit for investment in infrastructure bonds.Intrest income from infrastructure bond to be exempt from tax n deduction upto Rs 50,000 for individual investing in power bond, this move will help mobilize funds required for infra development. Industry demands for fiscal sops for venture funds & bringing power sector lending under the private sector.

Our Expectations:
***************************
Clearly all expectations have the rationale that there is immense shortage and there is a quick need to invest. The Government is expected to provide the sops but the ground level reality is that the companies are investing already and providing these benefits will not ensure any higher speed. Of course rationalisation of duty structures is essential.. and that may go on. We feel that the allocation of coal and the linkages is what could be the positives if at all the FM decides to focus on that. Power sector will certainly find focus in the budget. Tax free Bonds is something which will make access to funds a bit easier.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pre Budget 2008-09: Retail Sector
*********************************************************

High growth sector budget to be neutral for this sector.
--------------------------------------------------------
Indian retail industry is said to be the fifth largest retail destination globally, according to industry estimates is expected to grow from US$ 330 billion ( Rs1,320,000 Cr) in 2007 to US$ 427 billion (Rs 1,708,000 cr) by 2010 and US$ 637 billion (Rs 2,548,000 cr) by 2015. Simultaneously, organized retail which is currently accounts for 4 % of the total market hopes to increase its share to 22 % by 2010.

Driven by changing lifestyles, strong income growth and favorable demographic patterns, Indian retail is expanding at a rapid pace. Mall space, from a mere one million square feet in 2002, is expected to touch 60 million square feet by end-2008. There is huge investment from domestic as well as international players in the retail space.

Expectations from Union Budget 2008-09.
1) Retail sector hopes that the Budget will remove or lower the service tax (12.36%) on the lease rentals.
2) Also expect government to provide an Industry status to Retail. This would mean easy access to Bank credit and also in terms of raising long term debt from markets.

We have a positive view on a long term basis as the industry is in a nascent stage currently but huge potential ahead with the Tier II and Tier III cities showing big path. With increasing urbanization, favorable demographics and many more factors supporting the Retail sector. Largel global players have already tied up with Indian companies to tap this industry which has tremendous growth opportunity.

Our Expectation
***************
Industry status for retail is will lead to easy access of funds and could be hoped for. The Government has nothing to lose soits quite probable..

The service tax on rentals we believe would have negative implications on revenues for the Government and we dont believe that is likely. Lower rates of personal income tax to drive consumption is a possbility.

India gems & jewellery exports up 20 pct Apr-Sept'07

2008-02-28T15:48:00.005+05:30

India gems & jewellery exports up 20 pct Apr-Sept'07: "NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's gems and jewellery exports grew at over 20 percent in the first half of 2007/08, reviving from 2006/07, helped by cuts in import duties of rough jewels, according to the annual economic survey on Thursday."

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Confident of 9 pct growth up to 2011/12 - Chidambaram

2008-02-28T15:48:00.004+05:30

Confident of 9 pct growth up to 2011/12 - Chidambaram: "NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India is confident of achieving average 9 percent annual growth up to the fiscal year 2011/12 while containing inflation, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told reporters on Thursday."

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Slower loan growth to hit India expansion - ministry

2008-02-28T15:48:00.003+05:30

Slower loan growth to hit India expansion - ministry: "NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Loan growth in India slowed sharply to the first week of January and further deceleration of credit will hit the country's economic growth, the finance ministry said in a survey on Thursday."

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India infrastructure needs $500-515 bln - ministry

2008-02-28T15:47:00.001+05:30

India infrastructure needs $500-515 bln - ministry: "NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India will need investment of $500 billion to $515 billion up to the fiscal year 2011/12 to upgrade its infrastructure if it wants to maintain growth of close to 9 percent, a finance ministry report said on Thursday."

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Chat Transcript with S P Tulsian 26-02-2008

2008-02-26T18:51:00.000+05:30

Query by satish lekhani,

Hello sir, I want to invest for 1-2 year, pl. suggest me stocks which can i buy at current levels
Ans : We have been advising them regularly. Follow them for the time being, it is RIL, Powergrid and GMR Infra.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Rinku,

I have short Nifty feb. 100 @ 5075.00 on 25.02.2008. The market has shooted to positive terrain since then. Please advise.
Ans : Cover you short.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Pushprajsinh Solanki,

Respected Sir, what will be target price for Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd for 1 year.?
Ans : Maybe Rs.2,000 plus.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Rakesh Kumar,

I sold my rel power shares today. by when should i repurchase them to get the bonus shares? When is the record date for bonus?
Ans : Record date is likely in 1st week of April 08, so you need to buy it by 31st March, before stock goes ex-bonus.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Rakesh,

Sir, If I purchase rel power today, would i get the bonus shares?
Ans : Yes but need to hold it, till record date.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by tarun sharma,

sir,i m having 1500 rnrl@ 150 ,so i want suggestion wat to do ,should i switch over to any other script or i'll hold
Ans : Move to RIL or Adlab Films.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by kaushik bhatt,

I have 48 shares of rel power avg. price 430. shall i hold with 1year view?
Ans : Exit at Rs.450 levels.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by AJAY,

what is a ex-bonus price of Rel. Power if shares Close at 450 at record date! what is impect because normal course if bonus alloted to all share holders then price of rs. 281/-but this shares are alloted to only 15% shareholders.
Ans : All the trades shares of R Power are entitled for bonus, hence ex-bonus price would be about Rs.280, if it rules pre-bonus at Rs.450 levels. All promoter shares are presently having lock in and are non-traded, hence no question of 15% shares having given bonus.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Pankaj,

Sir, should I buy shares of CEAT at current market price of 146 ?
Ans : Buying is advised.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by MADHU,

why there is so much diff. in Mkt Cap of R-Power & Jindal steel& power ?
Ans : Both are not truly comparable as Jindal Steel Power is a sponge iron and steel manufacturer with power project while Reliance Power is a pure power generating company. Jindal Steel market cap is about Rs.36,000 crores while R Power would have about Rs.68,000 crores, post bonus.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by madhu,

is it good time to buy HCC at this level?Pls tell me the target price also.
Ans : Good stock at Rs.167, but you need to have atleast 12 months view.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Harish Kumar Sivakumar,

Sir, Walchandnagar industries stock has come down to 700 levels, should I sell it now
Ans : Due to bonus issue in the ratio of 1 : 1 and sub-division to Rs.2 face value, 1 share increased to 10 share, which is now ruling at Rs.740 per share. This translates into an effective price of Rs.7,400. No need to panic and can remain invested.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by dipakudhani,

sir why r not answering; plz answer me, i m holding500 parsoli @260 can i book loss hold for 3 months or shift to your favourate script gmr to recover my loss
Ans : Parsoli ruling at Rs.130. GMR Infra would recover your losses in the next 18 - 24 months.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by arvind gupta,

sir i m holding jpasso 500 shares @460 now it is rulling at 260 please put some light for 6 month view
Ans : Remain invested, a good stock.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Harish C N,

Dear Tulsian Sir I hold 500 shares of IDFC@ Rs 218, 450 shares of Rajesh exports @ Rs 150, 100 shares of Deccan chronicle @ Rs 234/-. Please advice on the future prospects of these companies. regards Harish
Ans : Exit from Rajesh Exports while hold other two stocks.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by rajesh,

Dear Sir, I have 9shares of CBOP, now that HDFC and CBOP has merged, what will happen to my shares. I request you very much to answer this question as my friends are saying my shares will go zero as the ratio is 1:25 or 1:27.
Ans : You would get cash for your holding, as it is less than 29 shares of Centurion Bank. Fraction would be issued to all holders, holding less than 29 shares. These fractions would than be consolidated and sold and proceeds would be distributed amongst holders of fraction coupon.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by jigar,

sir, i m holding 500 DCW at Rs.46.75 pls suggest me whether i should hold it for long term or not
Ans : Exit even by booking losses.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Bhavesh ajmera,

i have 150 rajesh exporte@902 suggest me please i hold in? what benifit after split in rajesh export
Ans : Exit.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by jigar,

i m holding 200 HFCL @29.95 what should i do
Ans : Hold.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Subodh B. Rawool,

is investmenst advised at current level for Zylog System, Empee Distillary and Celestial labs ? time period 1-2 years. thanks
Ans : Yes.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Rajesh,

Dear Mr. Tulsian, I repeat my query. Pls give ur opinion abt Himalya International. Does it hv sound fundamentals?? for long term inveastment. Thanks
Ans : Not an exciting stock as having high equity base of Rs.27 crores with annual topline of just Rs.50 crores and EPS of about Rs.4.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by MERAJ UDDIN,

Whether Bonus of RELPOWER will be given to original allottee of the Shares or the present holdings
Ans : Allottees holding shares on Record Date which will be declared later and likely to be around 10th April 08.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Atul,

Dear Sir, I have got 30 shares of Rel Pow @ ipo what should I do ? book losses @ current price and invest in power grid or wait till April ??
Ans : Exit now at Rs.450 and move to Powergrid at Rs.103.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Kunal,

Sir,What parameters should I consider while evaluating the type of MFs that I should invest in, assuming that I want relatively high & safe returns? What is the time period I should consider while evaluating the performance of various MF schemes? Should I apply for an NFO or an existing MF?
Ans : Consult any Mutual Fund Brokers or Advisor.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by ashiq shah,

dear sir this is my 5th query and i expect you will answer this time. holding 50 ril@2556,50 rel@1654,1500 gmr@163,2000ifci@63,300 parsvanath@295,300 omaxe@308 ,1000 alps@93.any upside seen in all the stocks in next 3 months
Ans : Upside is seen and likely in all the stocks in the next 3 months and all are good stocks. If you keep a horizon of 8 - 10 months, it will be quite rewarding.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by madhuri,

hi request your advice on below gtl infra 500 shares @76 vijaya bank 200 sh @86 itc 150 sh @238 could you suggest targets for above 3 scrips and when is it likely to reach the target
Ans : Fastest recovery is likely in Vijaya Bank, but still you may have to wait for about 6 months.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Arihant jain,

Dear sir, Please answer my query this time i am stuck with futures of kotak Mah @ 1400 have paid difference and rolled them to march sir what should i do should i average in the cash market? your advice is needed sir please reply. Thanks.
Ans : Very good stock if held in cash with delivery and chances of your recovering cost in the next 12 months. F&O is always a risky play.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by keshav daga,

respected sir,i have 200 share of edl @325, 100 share of dlf ltd525, 2oo share of power grid @250 what should i do sir
Ans : All three are fundamentally sound stocks and hence advised to remain invested with 6 months view.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by Shobha,

Dear Sir please let me know that should i accumulate TRF Ltd at the current price.It has corrected vastly frm its highs... please advice sir.Thankyou.
Ans : TRF is a material handling and engineering company and FY 08 EPS is likely to be about Rs.45 which discounts present price of Rs.1,260 by 28 times. Though it corrected from Rs.2,100, still it is expensive and a mid cap stock.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Query by MAHESH TALREJA,

Dear Sir, Can I buy Gremach Infra at CMP Rs.250/- for long term portfolio please. Thanking you, Sir.
Ans : Not advised.
Query Answered On Tue 26th Feb 2008

Railway Budget 26-FEB-2008. Video from Parliament

2008-02-26T18:42:00.001+05:30

Sectoral Budget Expectations and its Impact

2008-02-25T22:03:00.001+05:30

Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries
Budget Expectations
Positive
• Reduction in Excise Duty to 16% from the current 24% on all categories of vehicles including MUVs.
• Reduction of Excise Duty on Two wheelers to 12-8% from the current 16%.
• Extension of the weighted deduction of 150% on the expenses incurred on scientific research for a further
period of at least 10 years even after 2012.
• Reduction in Excise, Import and Custom duty structure on raw material and Auto components.

Impact
• A shift to structured uniform Excise Duty will help the Passenger Vehicle sector to clock better growth as the
cut in Excise Duty will be passed on to the customers by way of reducing the vehicle prices.
• Reduction in Two-wheeler Excise Duty will surely give some relief to the Two-wheeler players. The scenario
had worsened on account of inflationary pressures and high interest rates, which made finance companies
to cut down on loan disbursements to the industry.
• Increase in the weighted deduction would motivate Indian companies to spend more on R&D and develop
new and more efficient products.
• Any favourable change in Excise, Import and Custom Duty structure on raw material and Auto components
will overall impact the industry positively.

Top Picks
Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, M&M, Amtek Auto, Motherson Sumi.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Banking
Budget Expectations
Positive
• Re-introduction of tax concession on interest earned on infrastructure loans u/s 10(23G) of Income
Tax Act, 1961.
• Sops to enable infrastructure finance companies like IIFC, IDFC and PFC to raise funds at cheaper rates, for
instance through tax-exempt bonds.
• Hike in FDI/ FII limit for public sector banks from 20% to 26%.
• Allowance of NPA provisions made as per RBI's provisioning norms as deduction for tax computation.
• Contribution by a bank to a pension fund for employees not to be considered as a fringe benefit for FBT liability.

Impact
• Tax concession u/s 10(23G) would lower the overall effective tax rates for banks (in line with their
exposure to infrastructure) and enable them to increase credit off-take by charging preferential interest rates
to infrastructure companies. Similarly, sops for infrastructure finance companies would further boost
infrastructure lending.
• At some point, the large need for cheap capital for PSU banks (to enable them to remain competitive and grow
unconstrained) may necessitate an increase in FDI/FII limit. However, we believe, probability of such a move
is dictated by political compulsions as much as economic, and on that front a clear consensus is not evident.
• At present, the law does not recognise provisions made by Banks as per the RBI norms, unless a loan is
treated as a loss asset and fully written off. If granted, such a step would benefit banks by aligning their tax
liabilities with book profits (effectively preponing recognition of deduction in respect of stressed assets).
• Pension funds have substituted provident funds for those employees who opted for pension instead of
contributory provident funds, under the Bipartite Settlement in 1993. If granted, such a step would impact
profitability by bringing down FBT liability of PSU Banks (albeit marginally as overall FBT expenses are not a
very material expense item for most PSU Banks).
Top Picks
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Corporation Bank.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cement
Budget Expectations
Neutral
• Abatement on Excise Duty of 35%.
• Reduction in Central levies and Excise Duty (60% of ex-factory price of cement).
• VAT on cement and clinker be reduced from the current 12.5% to 4%.
• CVD be re-imposed to the extent of Excise Duty on cement imports.
• Abolish 5% Import Duty on Coal and Pet Coke.
• Greater emphasis on Housing and Infrastructure.

Impact
• While the abatement on Excise Duty of 35% would not impact the cement companies considering that it benefit would be passed on to consumers, it would be a Positive gesture by the government. Reduction in cement prices would help the government in controlling inflation.
• Cement is the most heavily taxed products. Reduction in Central levies and Excise Duty and also lowering VAT to 4% would help the cement companies in reducing prices.
• Imposition of CVD on cement imports would actually be a Neutral development for the Cement Industry as currently, despite making the import of cement free, there has been no significant import of cement into the country.
• Abolishing 5% import duty on Coal and Pet Coke would provide some relief to cement companies, which have been facing cost pressures in recent months.
• Greater emphasis on Housing and Infrastructure would be a positive for the cement industry especially considering that the sector is likely to witness an excess supply situation.

We are currently Neutral on the Sector.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FMCG
Budget Expectations
Positive
• Increase in Budget outlay for the rural sector.
• FBT to be rationalised.
• Reduction in VAT for biscuits from the current rate of 12.5% to 4%.
• CST on Processed Foods from the current rate of 3% to 2%
• Reduction in Excise Duty on:
a. Biscuits - Above Rs100/kg is charged 8% duty - to be fully exempt from Excise
b. Soaps & Detergents from the current rate of 16% to be rationalised
c. Packaging materials from current rate of 16% Central Excise duty to 8%.
• Import duty on Palm Oil from the current effective rate of 46%.

Impact
• Any increase in outlay for the Rural Sector means higher disposable income at the hands of the rural population, which could give a boost to the FMCG sector.
• Positive for all FMCG companies as they incur a lot of expenses on travel, product sampling and promotions as a part of their operations. These expenses attract 30% FBT on 20% of the total amount spent.
• We believe two segments stand to benefit the most from the Budget ie., Processed Foods and Personal Care
• Positives for companies in Processed Foods include:
• Players in the Biscuits segment stand to benefit the most owing to reduction in VAT (Biscuits are the only exception in the Processed Foods category on which 12.5% VAT is levied) and complete exemption from Excise.
• Reduction in CST and Excise on packaging materials stands to benefit all companies in the Processed Foods segment.
• Positives for companies in Personal Care include:
• Reduction in Excise on packaging materials would to benefit all Personal Care companies.
• Soaps & Detergents players stand to benefit the most owing to duty rationalisation and possible reduction of import duty on palm oil.

Top Picks
Godrej Consumer, Marico, Nestle.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Infrastructure
Budget Expectations
Positive
• Increase in the allocation of projects under the PPP model along with the size of projects increasing year-on-
year, the current VGF limit needs to be increased from the current 20% to 30% in the Budget.
• Though 100% FDI is permitted under the automatic route in various infrastructure sectors, existing Regulatory
guidelines require SPVs established for infrastructure development to obtain prior approval of the RBI to raise
external commercial borrowings (ECBs) to finance Rupee expenditure cost of such projects. There is a
demand for this restriction to be removed.
• Increase the maximum limit u/s 80C in Infrastructure bonds from the current Rs1lakh to Rs2lakh.
Increase the maximum investment limit of Rs50lakh per person per year u/s 54EC (long-term capital gains)
in NABARD and REC.
• Service Tax to be withdrawn for Input services for the Infrastructure sector.

Impact

• Increase in viability gap funding (VGF) will help improve viability of an infrastructure project with a long
gestation period as VGF is a one-time grant by the government.
• Liberalisation in the end use of ECB will help construction companies raise cheaper finances. Presently, ECB
funds can be deployed as investment in various foreign subsidiaries. That in turn can be invested in the fixed
assets and working capital requirements of the construction projects.
• Tax Benefits would help meet the increasing financial needs of the Infrastructure Sector.
• Withdrawal of Service Tax will reduce the overall burden of the input costs for these projects and will make their effective use cheaper for the industry.
Top Picks
IVRCL, HCC, Pratibha Industries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Metals
Budget Expectations
Positive
• We expect the government to reduce the Excise Duty on steel products, which is currently at 16%. However, we expect Excise Duty on Copper and Aluminium products to be left unchanged at 16%
• We expect Excise duty on raw materials like Copper Concentrate, Bauxite, Coke, Coal and Iron Ore to be left unchanged at 0%
• We expect Customs Duty on Copper, Aluminium, Steel and Copper Concentrate to be left unchanged at 5%.
• We expect the government to hike the Customs Duty on stainless steel products to prevent the Chinese manufacturers from dumping steel into the Indian markets.
• We expect the government to reduce Customs Duty on stainless steel raw materials like Nickel and Stainless Steel Scrap from the current 5% to nil.
• We anticipate the government to abolish duty on Steel making raw materials like scrap and met coke, which is currently at 5% (prices had spiked in the recent past).
• In the last Budget, the government had levied Export duty of Rs300 per tonne on iron ore, with more than 63% Fe content, and Rs50 on iron ore with less than 63% Fe content. Pertinently, as the export of low grade iron ore has not declined even after the duty of Rs50 per tonne, we believe the government will levy ad valorem
duty (around 10% of FOB price) on all grades of iron ore to curb exports.

Impact
• Steel players have hiked prices twice in the current year to combat rising input costs like iron ore and coke. Reduction in Excise Duty on steel products will be a positive for the Steel Sector as a whole. Even if the government holds the steel price hike, lower Excise Duty will compensate for the hike in the steel prices.
• Reduction in Import Duty on Steel and Stainless Steel raw materials like Nickel, Stainless Steel Scrap and Met Coke will be a positive for the Steel Sector as it would reduce the raw material costs in a rising cost scenario. Nickel is not available in India and domestic stainless steel players have to rely on imports. The
Nickel prices have hit the roof in the recent past. Hence, reduction in the import duty will help the Stainless Steel manufacturers to reduce their costs.
• Imposition of ad valorem duty on all grades of iron ore will be a negative for iron ore exporters like Sea Goa and positive for non-integrated steel players as it will increase the availability of ore in the local market and
reduce costs.

Sectoral Call : NEUTRAL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pharmaceutical
Budget Expectations
Positive
• Tax sops for pure R&D companies.
• Weighted deduction in Tax for in-house research and development activity to be extended to all R&D activities from
150% to 200%.
• Reduce MRP-based Excise Duty on drugs from 16% to 8%. The abatement should be increased to 55% from the
existing 42.5%.
• Reducing Customs Duty on imported life saving drugs to Nil from 5-10% at present.
• 100% deduction in Profits for operating and maintaining Hospitals in rural areas to be extended from March 31, 2008
to March 31, 2012 and should include hospitals beyond rural areas to stimulate growth of Medical Tourism.
• Tax holiday for export of Biotechnology, Healthcare, R&D, clinical trials and services to be implemented and extended
beyond Assessment Year 2009-10.
Impact
• This will benefit R&D spin-off companies like SPARC, Ranbaxy Life Science Research (RLSRL), Nicholas
Piramal Research Center (NPRC) and Wockhardt (plans to de-merge its R&D unit).
• Increase in the weighted deduction would be beneficial for the Indian companies.
• This would benefit majority of the pharma companies as medicines would be more affordable.
• Life saving drugs would be affordable if Customs Duty on the same is reduced.
• This would be positive for Hospitals entering Tier II cities.
• This would benefit Indian companies in the R&D, Hospitals and Biotechnology space.

Top Picks
Ranbaxy Labs, Cadila, Nicholas Piramal, Wockhardt, Shasun Chemicals

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oil & Gas

Budget Expectations
Positive

• Reduction in Excise Duty on petroleum products (current Excise Duty on Petrol - 6%+ Rs13.26/litre and Diesel - 6%+ Rs3.32/litre).
• Rationalisation and reduction in Sales Tax on Petrol and Diesel (current Sales Tax on Petrol - 18-31% and
Diesel - 8-28%).
• Infrastructure status to Exploration and Production (E&P) companies.
• Tax concession for newer city gas distribution (CGD) projects.
Impact
• Reduction in Excise Duty and Sales Tax will benefit the bleeding oil marketing companies (OMCs), which are
burdened with under-recoveries for selling retail fuels at below cost price.
• Will encourage further investments in the E&P Sector, with larger participation from the overseas players.
• Tax concessions for newer CGD projects will help boost investments and expand the gas grid as CGD is a
capital intensive business.

Top Picks
GSPL, RIL, Gujarat Gas

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Software
Budget Expectations
Negative
• Selective extension of the STPI scheme beyond March 31, 2009, specifically for the BPO Industry and for smaller
software companies, which are currently reeling under the impact of multiple headwinds such as Rupee
appreciation, wage inflation, higher attrition rates and a higher tax structure
• No change in the FBT on ESOPs
• Continued focus on e-governance through strong allocation

Impact
• Negative impact on the Top-tier software companies, which will have to pay higher tax rates FY2010 onwards
• We believe this has already been factored in the stock prices and the companies in question have significantly
under-performed the BSE Sensex over the past year.
• The FBT on ESOPs will not have any impact on software companies, given that it is passed on to the employees.
• The strong focus on e-governance will be a positive for TCS and 3i Infotech, which have a presence in this
space.

Top Picks
TCS, 3i Infotech, Tanla Solutions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Telecom

Budget Expectations
Positive
• Consolidating the levy structure faced by the industry into a single levy at a reduced rate
• Abolition of Service Tax on lease or rentals of immovable property used for commercial purposes

Impact
• The savings in costs on account of the reduction in the overall tax incidence of the
Sector are likely to be passed on to the consumer, resulting in lower mobile telephony costs.
• This is likely to provide a boost to the Sector in achieving the ambitious 500mn subscriber target of the
government by 2010.
• Abolition of the 12.24% Service Tax on lease and rentals of immovable property used for
commercial purposes is likely to lower roll-out costs, lead to a fall in overall costs for telcos and reduce mobile
telephony costs for the end-user, which will further boost growth of the Sector.

Top Picks
Bharti Airtel & RCOM
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indian Railways Budget - Session with Lalu Prasad Yadav Full Video

2008-02-20T19:44:00.002+05:30

Click the Image and then Play button to play the video

Budget FY07-08, FM Chidabaram Speech in parliament Full Video

2008-02-20T19:34:00.003+05:30

New Voice Pay Per Play, Promo

Click on Image and then click the Play Button. Full Video is about 120 Minutes long

Budget Wishlist by different segments (Short)

2008-02-20T19:29:00.003+05:30

New Voice Pay Per Play, Promo

CEO's Budget Wishlist
Feb-20-08 Reduce sales tax on fuel: GoAir Budget wishlist
Feb-20-08 Excise duty reduction on steel: Man Ind Budget wishlist
Feb-20-08 Infra, agri and education need focus: ING Invst Mgmt
Feb-20-08 Uniform duty across vehicles on M&M's Budget wishlist
Feb-20-08 Continue STPI Scheme beyond ’09: Aspire Systems
Feb-20-08 Want negative service tax list this Budget: DLF
Feb-20-08 Tax breaks needed for expenditure on R&D: PwC
Feb-20-08 Zicom Security wants peak customs duty reduced
Feb-20-08 Incentivise e-comm, increase Internet penetration: InfoEdge
Feb-19-08 Give incentives for exports: Kinetic Motors
Feb-19-08 Rationalize taxes on ATF: SpiceJet
Feb-19-08 Budget should reduce excise duty on automotives: RSB Grp
Feb-19-08 Extend tax benefits to EOUs: RSM Astute Group
Feb-19-08 Scrap multiple levies on telecom sector: Bharti Airtel
Feb-19-08 Reduce stamp duty, service tax for realty: Brigade Entp
Feb-19-08 Give industry status to realty: Parsvnath
Feb-19-08 ONGC wishlist: Want equitable sharing of subsidy burden
Feb-18-08 Govt must encourage dairy sector: Hatsun Foods
Feb-18-08 Empower local cos against foreign competition: KEC Int'l
Feb-18-08 Tax break for ent industry: Prime Focus Budget wishlist
Feb-18-08 Encourage pension, long-term saving: MetLife India
Feb-16-08 Garment industry Budget wishlist: Jobs, not sops
Feb-15-08 Harmonize excise structure across petrochemical chain: SRF
Feb-15-08 Extend tax holidays for STPI: WebEx Comm
Feb-15-08 Expect corporate surcharge down to 30%: India Infoline
Feb-15-08 Fertilizer sector looks forward to subsidy provisions
Feb-15-08 Encourage corporates in film sector: Pyramid Saimira
Feb-15-08 Extend tax sops for IT-ITES u/s 10A-10B: Kale Consultants
Feb-15-08 Education needs govt's focus, incentives: Educomp
Feb-14-08 Extend tax sops to pure R&D cos till 2012: Nicholas Piramal
Feb-14-08 Provide tax benefits for mass housing: Puravankara Proj
Feb-13-08 FBT should be abolished: People Group
Feb-13-08 Elder Health hopes for FBT ban, lesser excise duty
Feb-13-08 Allow AMCs to determine product pricing: Bharti AXA Inst
Feb-13-08 Focus on tax cuts, small cities, education: Bartronics
Feb-13-08 Govt should focus on cost control on medicines: Pfizer
Feb-13-08 Level playing field for imports-exports: JHS Svendgaard
Feb-13-08 More impetus needed for health insurance: Wockhardt
Feb-13-08 Expect removal of MAT on IT cos: Logix Microsystems
Feb-13-08 Change IT norms for pharma R&D, testing chgs: Ranbaxy
Feb-13-08 Extension of STPI scheme on Zensar Tech's Budget wishlist
Feb-12-08 Bring down excise duty on cement to 6%: Binani
Feb-12-08 Clear need to reduce taxes on telecom: IDEA Cellular
Feb-12-08 Extend SEZ benefits to all exporting units: Alkem Labs
Feb-12-08 Need for tax cuts for corporates: Lotus India AMC
Feb-07-08 Improve policies on imports, labour: Kirloskar Bros
Feb-06-08 Sops for retail investors unlikely in Budget: Kotak Mah Bk
Feb-06-08 Support talent, strengthen India: Arun Sarin
Feb-06-08 Rate cut to boost infrastructure development: Subhash Proj
Feb-01-08 Budget '08 wishlist: Examine CVD duty on cement imports
Feb-01-08 Budget '08 wishlist: Continue STP for another 10 yrs

Experts WishList

Feb-20-08 Budget won't alter mkts' valuations: Kotak Sec
Feb-20-08 Govt should better fiscal deficit: I-Sec Budget wishlist
Feb-20-08 Budget may boost IT, O&G sectors: Bharti Axa Invt
Feb-20-08 Direct tax rate cut may spur mkts: ICICI Pru Life
Feb-19-08 FM will stick to his fiscal deficit target: ABN Amro
Feb-19-08 Expect rate cut post-Budget: HSBC India
Feb-19-08 Budget may trigger good times for mkts: PN Vijay
Feb-19-08 Man Fin doesn't see runaway mkt till Budget
Feb-18-08 Pre-Budget mkt should range between 17k & 19k: Sharekhan
Feb-18-08 Mkts could see couple of 1,000 points rally: Centrum Cap
Feb-18-08 Small investors expect populist Budget: Emkay Share
Feb-18-08 SAIL expects big push for infrastructure in this Budget
Feb-15-08 Mkts might rally upto Budget: Dipan Mehta
Feb-15-08 Re-look interest rates & excise, import duty: Setco
Feb-14-08 Mkt won't move beyond 18,600 before Budget: Arpit Agrawal
Feb-13-08 Inclusive growth mantra for Budget 2008: Dawnay Day AV
Feb-13-08 Positions being built in mkt due to Budget: Religare
Feb-13-08 Budget will be pro common man: Anagram
Feb-13-08 Mkts may see pre-Budget rally: Dawnay Day
Feb-13-08 '08 Budget may enhance investor confidence: ABN Amro
Feb-12-08 Bullish on power: Gartmore Investment Management
Feb-12-08 IT starting to show signs of performance now: CLSA
Feb-12-08 JP Morgan positive on Infosys, TCS
Feb-08-08 Mkts may stay in 16,500-16,700 range till Budget: Karvy
Feb-08-08 Budget may address tax, infra issues: ICICI Pru Life
Feb-07-08 FII flows crucial for pre-Budget rally: Amit Nalin Sec
Feb-07-08 Budget may boost infra sector: Yes Bk
Feb-07-08 Rally driven by budget expectations: Dawnay Day AV
Feb-06-08 Elder Health hopes for FBT ban, lesser excise duty

MF (Mutual Funds) Wishlist
Feb-19-08 FBT should be abolished: Lotus AMC
Feb-13-08 Remove surcharge, education cess: StanChart MF
Feb-13-08 Changes in direct taxes expected: ABN AMRO MF
Feb-13-08 EPFs be allowed exposure to Indian markets: Kotak AMC
Feb-12-08 Debt market be developed akin to equity: Birla MF
Feb-12-08 Special incentives needed for retirement savings: Tata MF

Astro prediction of Budget 08-09

2008-02-20T15:45:00.002+05:30

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is just around the corner and everybody- from the common man to industry experts - can hardly wait for the day to come. People are hoping to get more reliefs from United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) Government in this Budget. Whether or no our Finance Minister (FM) fulfill the wish of citizens of India? If the Budget is friendly or unsympathetic to the common subject of the country. Ganesha takes a look at the commerce and industry of India and gives his Astrological Analysis on Budget 2008-09.

Horoscope of Independent India shows that Sun is in the Cancer and transiting Sun is passing through 10th house of Saturn (Aquarius), and in conjunct with North Node. This event disturbs the Sun. In addition to this, as Sun is in the Sattarka constellation on the day of Budget, Government of India will have strong stance on petrol and related products, pure silver, lead and steel. Moreover, Finance Minister may take some harsh decisions on pesticides. Power sector may experience the heavy shocks in electricity; products where atomic energy is utilized may become costly. Electronic items like fridge and TV are likely to be expensive. Bad news for home-makers as price of LPG may be shot up, however, Govt may declare 50% deduction in this product just to please the common man. But hike is for sure as constellations are not supporting the product. Wine and beverages may get a strong kick.

India's Natal Moon is posited in Cancer, moreover, on the day of Budget, transiting Moon will be in conjunction with Natal Ketu in Scorpio. This conjunction will take place in Jyeshtha constellation. Price hike in Cotton, Wheat, Turmeric, Cable, Machinery, Chemicals, colour, Fat, Sweet-Sugar may disappoint the people.

Transiting Mars is passing over Natal Mars from Gemini; this event may create a havoc. Moreover, transiting Jupiter aspects transiting and Natal Mars, therefore, Ganesha views positive change in Paper, Railway Budget (drastic changes), Ghee, Honey, Computer, Radio, Jewellery and Revenue share.

Transiting Mercury and Venus will be in conjunction in 9th House. FM may present the Budget keeping his political agenda in mind. In this situation FM may lionize Export-Import, Foreign Trade, National Growth and Rural Advancement. Supreme court may be bestowed with more powers. Some relief in Insurance sector is expected. Education will be affordable, but higher education will be pricey.

Jupiter will be Transiting from 8th House in Sagittarius; this transit will take place in Poorva Sadha constellation. As Jupiter is Lord of 11th and 8th Houses, Stock Exchanges, Govt Loans, Bonds, Govt Securities may not receive expected benefits. Sandal, Gold, Diamond Jewellery and Perfumes may become costly.

Venus, Lord of Ascendant and 6th House, will be transiting from 9th House, therefore, Textile, Butter Milk, Betel Nuts, Liquid Medicine, Land Developers, Liquor may not be heavy on people's pockets. With these, Health related programmes, Army, Air-Force, Civil Services, Medical Services and Labour will be focused.

Conjunction of Transiting Saturn and Ketu will take place in Leo in Magha constellation. This will inspire our PM and FM to consider inflation, growth rate, overrating and the entire economy; in spite of all these factors, they may not get credit of the Budget. This conjunction of Saturn and Ketu in 4th House will trigger drastic changes in Grains, Edible Oils, Vegetables, Plastic, Mining Industry and Drug Manufacturing.

Moreover, conjunction of Transiting Sun and Rahu is going to take place in Natal 10th House of Independent India's chart. FM will consider Tax Accumulation, Revenue Deficit, Fixed Deposit, Foreign Direct Investment Flow, GDP growth rate. But all this will not give relaxation to the people. However, FM will definitely try to play safe and will make efforts to maintain the growth.

India has Natal Mahadasha of "Venus-Mercury Antardasha" and "Saturn Pratiantardasha". Moreover, India is under the influence of Mercury Mahadasha. Mercury is Dhanesh and Panchmesh, therefore, Tax Collection, Corporate Tax and Agriculture sector may see 20% reduction in tax benefit.

Let's have a sectoral look:

IT
As Transiting Sun is affected by Transiting Rahu, IT may be influenced. If IT is ignored this time, the entire lucrative sector may be collapsed. Therefore, IT should have a centralize budget. Software repairing and maintenance may get some relief.

Automobile
Automobile sector requires strong position of Venus and Mercury. This time automobile industry may not receive direct benefit, but Ganesha also sees positive moves from FM. With the introduction of Nano from Tata and other cheap four-wheelers from TVS and Bajaj, growth rate of auto sector will be continued; on the other hand, due to infrastructure and road allocation, auto industry has bright future in India.

Pharmaceutical
The Budget 2008-09 seems neutral for Pharma Sector. FM will take decisive steps to encourage Pharma Industry at international level, feels Ganesha. FM may not discourage the entire Sector and may also not provide any special benefits.

Retail
Good benefits are in the briefcase of FM for this sector. In this Budget Quality of Material, Gradation and Consumer Protection will get enough consideration.

Banking
Banking sector will have bunch of benefits and also get good reserves. Moreover, decisive steps are expected to merge all Government and Semi-Government banks. And the idea of Mega Banking Corporation will get a boost. They can borrow funds by lower rates from international Banks and Depositories.

Infrastructure
Mars is transiting over natal Mars from second House. Mars is the lord of 12th House and is Aspected by transiting Jupiter. Therefore, there are more possibilities to get assisted by Foreign Direct Investment and World Bank. Mars is transiting from Mrigshirsh Constellation, hence, National Highways, Railways and Airport Authority can get more benefits. Privatization and modernization are expected for Metros and Tier-II cities. Moon will be in conjunction with Ketu so, decisive steps are expected for leading Ports.

Metal and Steel
Due to the influence of Saturn and Ketu conjunction, reduction in Custom Duty is expected. But, Infrastructure allocation, Agricultural Allocation, hike in prices of Petrol and Diesel can get affected negatively.

Entertainment
The sector is benefited by the conjunction of Venus and Mercury. Growth rate will be continued for Radio Stations. But, Broadcasting Companies may not get benefits as per the structure of Income Tax.

Telecom
Influence of Mecury Mahadasha will pour lot of benefits into Telecom. But, Custom Duty may be increased on Cell Phone and its components. However, the tax can be nominal. Overall, there is a long term benefit to the common man.

Fertilizer, Pesticide, Agriculture
There can be a little increase in these products, but seeds, agro-chemicals, drip-irrigation companies may get relief. However, as Rahu dominates the entire horoscope of Independent India this year, pesticides may be the major point of debate in Parliament.

Cement & Real Estate
Transit of Mars can hike prices of infrastructure and construction projects. However, as transiting Jupiter aspects Mars, there can be a minor change in overall expenditure.

All in all, the growth story of India Inc will continue. The budget can be dubbed mediocre- no profit, no loss. Finance Minster will play safe and Ganesha feels that the Budget 2008-09 is going to influence forthcoming election.

Now, let's have a look at the effects of Budget on the stock market. Ganesha gives you predictions of March and April, the two months immediately after the Budget 2008-09.

March 1, 2008 to March 31, 2008
(Month without any worth) (0.01)

Crucial dates: 10, 11, 21, 26, 28 (very important dates)
Ganesha warns you in the opening during the week of March 10, 2008. If you can deal with this phase, you will be happy.
Intraday players are advised to be alert on small profit and big loss.
Do not try to strike balance between profit and loss. Finalize any one and come out.

April 1, 2008 to April 30, 2008
(Month to earn good margin) (0.04)

Crucial dates: 3, 9, 10, 15, 21, 22, 23
There will be only three chances to book profit
Be careful between 11:30 and 12:30 and closing time during the week of April 20, 2008.
Keep booking profit at regular intervals and trade cautiously.
Maximum buying and selling are advisable in this month.

Chat Transcript with Ambarish Baliga 11-02-2008

2008-02-19T16:41:00.002+05:30

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Chat Transcript

ambareeshbaliga: Hi Everybody - Be Greedy when others are fearful......

TheMatador: Mr. Baliga your views on Education players like Educomp Sol, Everonn Systems etc.

ambareeshbaliga: These stocks should get some trigger during the budget as there should be some sops for the education sector. But by then you would see these stocks at lower levels - especially Educomp is still richly valued

apsamraj: Sir, whats you view on MRPL and Ashok Leyland? Hold or sell?

ambareeshbaliga: MRPL - Hold. Ashok Leyland buy @ current levels. Downside not beyond 31/- upside should be 50 in next 6 months

sud_benz: Hi, what`s the future for GMR Infrastructure?

ambareeshbaliga: GMR Infra a good play on Infra Sector where we are still bullish. Buy more @ current levels

share811: I BOUGHT RELIANCE POWER @410. WHAT TO DO NOW IT IS @370.

ambareeshbaliga: If you bought @ 410 hold on for a bounce back.

patidardhar123: dear sir, outlook for TCS is it go 1030 in feb08?

ambareeshbaliga: TCS - buy more @ current levels. We are targetting 1250/- in next 6-9 months

s.mahesh.v: hello sir what is the future for DLF UNITECH BHEL

ambareeshbaliga: DLF & Unitech - Ignore as Realty sector will still have pain left. Bhel and other capital goods sector should be bought

Bharat25: Should one buy Banking stocks now.

ambareeshbaliga: Banking Sector can be bought @ current levels. Concentrate on Mid Sized PSU banks - Dena Bank, Indian Bank, Corporation Bank etc

panchalbijal: hi what do you think where the market is heading?

ambareeshbaliga: Surely uncertain times but a great time for stock pickers and investors. We could see lower levels - possibly it could try testing the recent bottom of 15300 levels but like I said in the beginning of this chat - it's time to be greedy - Buy the stock you wanted to buy in the last couple of months but couldn't buy!!!

anand888: Hello Sir, i am making huge losses. what is your thoughts on Triveni @ 190, Cairn India @ 230, DCM Shriram COns @ 85, Rajesh Exports @ 145

ambareeshbaliga: There is nothing you can do right now except wait. You could possibly average out Triveni @ current levels

pdbexim: NOW WHAT ONE INVESTOR SHOULD DO IS HE GOING TO TO GET HIS VALUE BACK IN 6 MONTH OR YEAR

ambareeshbaliga: If you have good quality stocks you could get your price in the next 1 year. If you have got B & C grade stocks - then you may have to wait much longer

papu adiga: What about Long term View of Siemens, Sasken, EverstKanto,Mercator Lines, and II TCS WIPRO NIIT TECH

ambareeshbaliga: Long term view on all the above stocks is positive. Hold if you have and buy if you don't especially Siemens, Everest Kanto, Mercator, TCS & Wipro

surendra2010: Hi baliga sir good evening.. should we book loss or wait to recover.

ambareeshbaliga: If you have the capacity to hold, then please hold. This is not the time to sell. In fact if you can spare more money, average out your good quality stocks and possibly clear out duds even at a loss

harshad256: future prospectus of essar oil

ambareeshbaliga: Prospects of Essar Oil - I think we have seen the best in the last 2 months. You should have utilised that opportunity. I don't think we will see those highs for a long time to come

Sid_for_you: What is your outlook for cement stocks now.prices were raised in Mumbai recently by rs 5/bag...

ambareeshbaliga: Cement stocks will be market performers as prices of cement may not shoot up more from here. New capacities coming up will keep this under check as demand/supply gap is narrowing

adarsh12jain: hi sir, lost almost everything.. what would u suggest now..? Hold or book all losses

ambareeshbaliga: Hold on to you better quality stocks and exit the duds. Use that money to average out better stocks, unless you can pump in fresh money.

Bharat25: Which stocks should one buy till budget

ambareeshbaliga: this budget would be more agro, rural and education based. But the way the markets are, you can buy any sector other than Realty and Power, and you will earn handsome profits in the longer run

veenaarvind: Dear Ambareesh, Iwould like to know the reason for this fluctuation in the market and also know whether and also know whrther we can expect further downslide in markets?

ambareeshbaliga: After an era of over exuberance and excesses, come in era of pessimism - which is where we are today. though the valuations are attractive, i don't rule out further downsides. But a great time to buy but keep enough to buy at lower levels too!!!

panchalbijal: what do you think of NTPC?

ambareeshbaliga: NTPC was rerated based on Rel Power IPO - more so the expected listing price of R Power @ 950+. When these expectations were watered down in the last 2-3 weeks, NTPC too suffered. Now with this disastrous listing, it is natural that NTPC too will go down further - Though I still beleive that R Power should not have been used as a yard stick to value NTPC

surendra2010: Hi baliga sir good evening.. should we book loss or wait to recover.I WANT to know about jaiprakash asso,icici,or idbi.or gmr infra.pl. give ur views.

ambareeshbaliga: Don't book losses now. You are already late in doing so. This is the level to start buying

shinderavi: Sir. My portfolio shows 30K loss in 2Lakhs portfolio with Large Caps only. Is this a reason to worry?

ambareeshbaliga: 15% loss is not too bad in a market like this. You are among the better investors.

vm_s: there are infmn that PNB gilts will be merged with PNB.Your views pl

ambareeshbaliga: Based on this news PNB Gilts had moved to 45+ levels. If it comes to 27 levels - buy again

chokshi: what to do with religare at this price

ambareeshbaliga: The way the markets are, especially the volumes, and expected bad debts, disputes etc, it doesn't make sense investing in a brokerage company.

Bharat25: should one stay with stocks like Powergrid and Mundra Port.
ambareeshbaliga: Powergrid - buy closer to 88 and Mundra Port wait for another 4% to 5% drop from here

anshudawar: Hi What is the prospect of Bio Diesel players like Southern Online

ambareeshbaliga: When you are getting front line stocks at great valuations, ignore small stocks like southern online

debapriyas: what do u forsee on the markets

ambareeshbaliga: I see a period of pain accompanied by low volumes & volatility. Investors will tend to get bored but utilise the opportunity. An Economy like India with 8.5% growth, can't be ignored for too long inpsite of gloabal worries.

Chat Transcript with Prakash Gaba 18-02-2008 - How to be an effective trader?

2008-02-19T16:34:00.002+05:30

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How to be an effective trader?

What trading strategies should one adopt now?

Bharat25: I have 150 shares of RNRL purchased at 208. At what price should one accumulate this stock.

Prakash Gaba: RNRL...100 is a strong support. one can accumulate in these regions

sunilxochi: I have tech mahindra buyed on 1500 by 5 month ago,please advise what to do

Prakash Gaba: 600 is astrong support Zone for Tech Mahindra...One can buy around these regions to exit when it goes up....1500 is far away

rp241981: hello sir, what is the best level to buy punj lloyd, hdil and jai corp

Prakash Gaba: Punj lloys 300 is a strong suport zonebuy around these levels and exit higher. HDIL very strong support zone is around 725. Jai Corp 800 is a strong support zone

bikash1981: what is the future of NTPC in short-term

Prakash Gaba: 185 is a Strong support zone for NTPC and exit around 225 it climbs

Bharat25: Should we again retest the levels of 4800 on Nifty if budget doesn`t deliver good news.

Prakash Gaba: 4450 on the NIFTY is a strong support and I dont think it will crack. But if 4450 cracks then it is good night Markets

anand888: I hold Triveni @ 190, Rajesh Exports @ 150, DCM @ 85. Please let me know your views

Prakash Gaba: Triveni 120 is Strong supports. Rajesh exports can come down to around 100. DCW loks good and can climb from here

rohit_libra: Is it the right time to invest or should wait for stablity

Prakash Gaba: any time is right as long as stocks are right....

raj8428: whats is long term target of godrej ind..?? cmp 270

Prakash Gaba: Godrej can go up to around 350 in time to come

amitsumit2007: Hello Mr. Gaba what is your outlook on Nandan Exim purchased 15000@ 6.5. Currently it is at 4.08

Prakash Gaba: you are likely to get your cost price back

Bharat25: What are the targets for GMR and HDIL in medium term.

Prakash Gaba: Both are good

yourssid: you have any idea about the merger of pnb gilts

Prakash Gaba: No

vishal_3: I have got 350 RPL @258.

Prakash Gaba: Buy more and hold for long term

raj8428: whats is long term target of gulf oil corp cmp 180

Prakash Gaba: Gulf can go to around 265...I must disclose that I have Gulf OIl in my portfolio

Bharat25: what is the strong support for Reliance Capital.

Prakash Gaba: 1500

chillarge: sir, I bought bhel@2600. as a long term view what level should i see? will i see profits in a year. some analyst are saying stay away from capital goods sector?? any reason? thanks

Prakash Gaba: Hold it...Sector is good

alok_mahajan: support for provogue

Prakash Gaba: looks weak

rames_mgr: sIR I BROUGHT POWERGRID AT 140

Prakash Gaba: 100 is a strong support dont worry and hold for long term

rj2006: Sir, is market looking weak since you are advising only support zone.

Prakash Gaba: support also means buying opportunities.does it not?

sanjaygar19407: gabaji, Tea sector Share William magor was Rs.92 high in January and now it is trading at 54. how is this share

Prakash Gaba: can go up again

lavakumar: sir ur viers on ACC i hold 50

Prakash Gaba: continue to hold it

cyberp5: can u suggest me some stocks for long term investments like 1 -2 yrs.

Prakash Gaba: RIL

sumsin: Sir your views on: -Alps Ind -Noida Toll -PetroNet LNG -Powergrid -HUL
Thanks

Prakash Gaba: Alps can go up-Noida Toll- Not clear, -PetroNet LNG-can go up, -HUL-can go up

dhamsguru: what are the things that a trader should not forgot??( not intraday trader)

Prakash Gaba: always take profits on target

rj2006: Sir, How does this month nifty closing look like...higher/ lower than current level.

Prakash Gaba: higher

dhrupadbuch: Sir, Reliance Ind outlook for feb2008

Prakash Gaba: good

dhrupadbuch: How does Inox appear technically

Prakash Gaba: 115 is a Strong suport zone

US sneezes, the world catches a cold - EM Recoupling

2008-02-18T19:40:00.001+05:30

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After a difficult start to 2008, most emerging market investors are now beginning to unwind their 'de-coupling theory' into a 're-coupling' one. Forced out of their complacency by massive fund withdrawals from the asset class (dedicated emerging market funds had over US$ 15 bn in redemptions in January, after US$ 54 bn in inflows in 2007 - source Bloomberg), investors are finally taking a reality check. Prior to January 2008, the script was very clear; irrespective of what happens in the US, the emerging markets were economically decoupled and thus would be able to evade the US slowdown. Reams of research were written on how China was a more powerful driving force for the emerging economies than the US, and how intra-emerging economies trade was growing much faster than emerging economies' exports to the developed world. Economists also pointed out the strong domestic growth prospects and the huge infrastructure and capex cycle currently underway in India, China and select other emerging nations were sufficient to withstand the setback. With continued strong consumer and corporate confidence, the dent in the growth rates was not expected to be more than 1% to 2% of the respective GDPs.

Their false perceptions having been proven wrong, investors are crudely reminded of the old adage that if the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. The valuation gap between the emerging nations and the US based companies have now become unfathomable resulting in investors refusing to pay 20 to 25 times trailing 12-month earnings for an Indian company, when they can buy US MNCs at cheaper valuations. Investors accept the higher growth thesis, but are not willing to pay for it beyond a point.

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To counter the dip in profitability due to an appreciating rupee, Indian software majors are increasing the utilisation of their manpower for quicker execution of projects and adding workforce for entry-level and high-margin projects. For Infosys, the utilisation rates have gone up by 2% in 3QFY08 to 75%, while for TCS, the same have gone up from 78.2% in 2006 to 79.4%. This means that projects undertaken by the IT companies would be executed at a faster rate. Since January 2007, the rupee has appreciated against all major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, pound sterling and the yen. The rise has been the most significant against the US dollar (about 9%). Currently, top Indian IT companies derive about 60% of their revenues from the US. IT majors are also ramping up their headcount with TCS and Infosys together adding about 58,000 employees in FY08.

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With the deadlines for Basel II compliance and the RBI's roadmap for opening up the banking sector to foreign players getting close on the heels, players in the sector have adopted inorganic strategies to acquire scale and growth momentum. Mergers and acquisitions volume in India's banking industry increased significantly to US$ 10.5 bn dollars through 38 deals in 2007. Against this, the sector had witnessed 23 deals worth US$ 707 m in 2006. Globally, banking M&A volume has increased to US$ 369.5 bn through 853 deals (up 18% YoY) from US$ 313 bn in 858 deals in 2006. Interestingly, the average deal size has reached about US$ 692 m, up 14% from US$ 607 m in 2006.

The current regulations allow foreign banks to acquire majority stake in only weak domestic banks identified by the RBI. Contrasting this, globally, banks have witnessed consolidation by way of mega amalgamation deals like the one struck between Standard Chartered Bank and ANZ Grindlays or the Citibank-Travelers merger. Also, many foreign banks (including Citi, HSBC and Standard Chartered) have invested billions in picking up large stakes in Chinese banks and insurance companies. Thus, it could be quite a different story after April 2009, when the foreign banks have greater freedom for inorganic growth in the country. What they have done in Singapore, Hong Kong, China and elsewhere in recent years is rather indicative of the same. Their handicap of limited penetration and concentration in a niche customer segment could also be overcome with greater liberty from the RBI.

US sneezes, the world catches a cold - EM Recoupling

2008-02-18T19:40:00.000+05:30

Budget 08-09 : Need 'new' status: Oil Sector

2008-02-15T16:48:00.001+05:30

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Need 'new' status: Oil Sector

Though India’s per capita energy consumption is extremely low, the consumption is increasing in line with growth in GDP and the consumption is expected to double in 10-15 year time. The consumption of oil and gas is also expected to increase in line with other energy forms.

In fact, the consumption of gas may increase faster depending of the availability of natural gas and the coverage of the gas transmission system in the country. Unlike coal, which forms the largest part of India’s energy basket, India imports more than 70% of its crude oil requirements.

The country is also importing more than 25% of the current natural gas consumption. The Governments have been actively de-controlling the sector so as to attract the private participation and boost energy security of the country.

Oil and gas sector in India is attracting both domestic and international companies thanks to high global prices and exciting domestic discoveries. Government has directionally been freeing up the sector and private participation is allowed in all parts of the sector. The recent notifications establishing an independent Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulator would add the transparency in the sector.

Petrol and diesel are two of the heavily taxed products in the country. Additionally, there is a lack of consistency in the tax and duty framework for the oil & gas sector with different tax and duty structure for various elements of the petroleum chain. Therefore the budget session generates a lot of interest in the Oil & Gas sector. The government brought certain crucial tax proposal in the Union budget 2007-08 to provide impetus to this sector.

Budget 2007-08 and implications

In the Union budget, 2007-08, the ad valorem excise duty on both petrol and diesel was reduced by 2 per cent to 6 per cent. This was unfortunately followed by increase in global oil & gas prices; hence, the impact could not get passed on to the consumer. This though helped in reducing the under recovery of the Oil Marketing Companies (OMC).

There was a 1% reduction in the central sales tax to 3% on LPG and SKO (both are declared goods). It may also be noted that these products are anyway subsidized and hence, such incentives are not likely to be entirely passed to the end consumer.
Service tax at the rate of 12.36% was extended to services outsourced for mining of oil and gas sectors, including services like drilling, seismic surveys, logistic support for exploration and development of fields.

This has not only increased the burden on the Exploration & Production (E&P) companies in India, the development costs were also impacted adversely affecting companies like Reliance Industries, Cairn Energy, etc.

In order to incentivize building up a country-wide natural gas transmission grid, cross-country gas pipeline projects were extended the tax benefits available to “infrastructure project” under section 80IA of the Income Tax Act, 1961. This entails a tax holiday for 10 years out of a block of first 15 years of commercial production.

This incentive coupled with establishment of the Regulator for the sector, is expected to act as a catalyst in the growth of the gas transmission system. Reliance Group is laying a 1400 km long gas pipeline from Andhra Pradesh to Gujarat. GAIL and Gujarat State Petronet Limited have also announced plans for cross country pipelines.

Budget 2008-09 - Expectations

The domestic oil & gas industry has huge potential for further growth. Further, the timing of Union Budget 2008-09 synchronizes with the seventh round of the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP).

The oil & gas industry has been demanding ‘infrastructure’ status for Crude oil product and gas pipelines, storage terminals and other related facilities for transportation and storage of petroleum products and associated tax holiday of 10 years. The E&P players have also been demanding a 10 yeas tax holiday against the existing 7 years tax holiday.

The industry has been canvassing for reduction in the peak customs duty on crude, which constitutes a major chunk of India’s import bill in the oil & gas sector.

The industry has also been demanding a reduction in excise duty on petrol and petroleum products. The industry has been demanding that in line with the recommendations of the Rangarajan committee, the excise duty of petroleum products such as MS (Motor Spirit) and HSD (High Speed Diesel) be made specific instead of advolerm.

It has also been demanded that natural gas, which currently attracts high sales taxes, should also be given the “declared goods” status. Industry is also requesting for LNG to be exempt from custom duty.

The above recommended measures would provide the much needed boost to the oil & gas sector, which has huge growth potential in India.

Indian Budget 08-09: The Wish-list Telecom Sector

2008-02-15T16:44:00.002+05:30

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Telecom sector eyes new tax regime
Harishankar Subramaniam

The Indian telecom sector has been one of the fastest growing sectors in the Indian economy in past few years. The sector has within its ambit a diverse range of activities like telephony services, leased circuits, provision of passive infrastructure, value added services, network management services, and the basic activity of setting up telecom infrastructure.

It has emerged as the 4th largest in the world in terms of wireless subscribers and 5th largest in terms of total telecom subscribers. The phenomenal growth witnessed by the sector has resulted in massive investments and expansion of teledensity that are indicative of a vibrant sector.

Previous Budget: A Neutral Event

The Union Budget last year was rather neutral towards the telecom sector, with no radical changes affecting the industry.

On the indirect tax front, the budget introduced new service categories of telecommunication service and development and supply of content service, providing a comprehensive coverage of various telecom related services. This has put to rest the controversies prevailing earlier with respect to taxability of various telecom services, such as interconnect usage charges, dark fibers, etc. Also, since almost all services provided by telecom operators have now become taxable, the need for maintaining elaborate records for tracking taxable and exempt services, to claim appropriate Cenvat credit has now been obviated.

The Finance Minister also recognized the long pending demand of the industry to rationalize the number of levies on the sector, by directing the Department of Telecommunications to commission a study for a unified tax structure for the sector. However, anything concrete on this front is yet to happen.

All in all, it may be said that the previous year’s budget did not have anything significant for the telecom sector, in that some of the issues faced by the industry remained unaddressed. These have now turned into wish-list for the forthcoming budget. The key issues have been discussed below.

Budget 08-09: The Wish-list

Credit for Additional Customs Duty (ADC)

Various Information Technology Agreement bound items including BTS, Routers, VAS equipment, etc. are subject to 4% Additional Customs Duty (ADC). Since telecom operators/ network service providers are not manufacturers but service providers, they are not entitled to avail credit of this 4% ACD. In light of the fact that most of these equipments are generally imported from outside the country, an additional 4% cost on such equipments translates into an increased cost of service. Considering the long standing demand from telecom sector, it remains to be seen whether the forthcoming budget would provide any relief on this front.

Customs Duty on Telecom Software

Telecom companies purchase telecom software, which is generally equipment specific and has to be configured in the equipment. Most players in the industry have taken a position that telecom software may thus, be classified as customized software and not canned or off the shelf software, which currently attracts 8% duty. However, the authorities are often not convinced about the customized nature of telecom software and seek to levy customs duty on such software. Hence, the industry is eagerly anticipating an appropriate exemption or clarification that would bring telecom software out of the purview of customs duty.

Cenvat credit on telecom equipment

Telecom service providers undertake installation of assets such as BTS, cables, boosters across their respective service areas. To avail credit of such capital goods, these are required to be installed in the registered ‘premises’ of the telecom service provider, which leads to practical difficulties in terms of defining and registering the premises.

Availability of credit of duties paid on goods like towers and shelters is also an area of ambiguity for most telecom operators. On a strict interpretation of the Cenvat credit rules, it appears that these do not qualify as capital goods, and hence, the dispute about their eligibility for credit.

Special direct tax incentives

On direct taxes, licenses which are granted up to 31 March 2005 only are eligible for tax benefits under Section 80 IA of the Income Tax Act. Further, even the holders of these licenses are not getting the same tax incentives as are available to other infrastructure activities like power, ports, roads etc. Also, even after such tax deduction provided in the income tax code, companies end up paying Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT).

Amending tax benefits on the above lines would help existing players to re-invest the funds, and encourage new players to enter into the industry. In both ways, the Government would see more investment flowing into the sector.

Conclusion
To exploit the full potential of the industry, it requires a continuous support from government in terms of policy changes and tax benefits. Taxes, which constitute a significant component of the industry costs, have been a topic of constant advocacy by industry forums. Issues such as those highlighted in this article lead to diversion of resources and efforts towards tax representations, litigation, etc., which are already scarce in this fast growing sector. The forthcoming budget would hopefully embody propositions to assist the industry look beyond the issues it is currently facing under the prevailing tax regime.

The writer can be contacted at: sharishanker@kpmg.com

Astro View on Microsoft and Yahoo Deal? Will it Go Through

2008-02-14T16:21:00.001+05:30

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Microsoft and Yahoo deal through Ganesha's lens

Introduction
Microsoft and Yahoo deal is not only favorable for Yahoo but it will also have favorable impacts on the online products of Microsoft. Ganesha believes that Microsoft's takeover of Yahoo might be the solution to many problems. Microsoft said that Yahoo cannot work independently after the takeover. This news has shaken the Internet industry. Ganesha gives his views in this matter.

Astrological analysis
Ganesha analyzes the Horary Chart of Microsoft and Yahoo deal. The question was asked that "Will Microsoft takeover Yahoo"? Ganesha sees Cancer Ascendant with 24:02:00 degrees whereas Moon is posited in Scorpio sign with 25:21:00 degrees. Position of Sun should also be considered. Sun is posited in 7th house with 19:04:00 degrees. Very interesting point in this Horary Chart is that Ascendant and Moon both are posited in Gandant. Moreover, Sun is posited in the cusp of 7th house. Therefore, the answer to the event will be mysterious. Another question was asked during Mercury-Rahu-Ketu Mahadasha. Here dasha nath is retrograde and posited in 7th house.

Ganesha feels that finalization of this deal may take some time because 10th and 12th house should also be considered. Lord of 10th house is posited in 12th house with 00:08:00 degrees whereas lord of 12th house is retrograde and posited in 7th house. So, Microsoft has decided to purchase Yahoo, but the dealing pattern will take a new shape, says Ganesha. During the finalization of deal Yahoo may change its opinion regarding the negotiation of price structure.

Ganesha wishes both Yahoo and Microsoft all the best for this big deal.

Ganesha's Grace,
Malav Bhatt
The GaneshaSpeaks Team

Astro prediction for sensex Q1 FY2008

2008-02-14T16:16:00.002+05:30

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BSE SENSEX closed Monday 11th Feb'08 at 16,630.91. SENSEX experienced a new lifetime high of 21207 and a low of 15332 during Jan'08. Indian investors were very highly leveraged on their `long positions' in Jan'08.

This savage fall in SENSEX and NIFTY in a subject of three trading sessions - 18th, 21st and 22nd Jan'08 took the `speculators' by surprise in the Indian equity markets. The fall was so steep that said operators could not `square off' their long positions in time. There were some `systemic' shortcomings in the Indian equity markets which lead to this situation wherein the brokers `squared off' the client's long positions as the `margin calls' got triggered in the fall. US Fed moved in on 22nd Jan'08 with an aggressive `Fed Funds' interest rate cut of 75 bps to 3.50 % in order to arrest the further fall of ^ DJI. This is the biggest interest cut in more than 23 years by US Fed. Ben also cut the `Discount Rate' by 75 bps to 4.0 %. The ^DJI recovered and so did global equity markets. In fact SENSEX recorded its single highest daily gain of 1140 pts on 25th Jan'08.

Moreover, The financial shock as experienced by the US subprime market has sent ripples globally. In such a situation it is important to analyse the impact of the US slowdown on the economic growth of India. Market volatility and the US sub-prime mortgage crisis has sparked deep financial concern for the world's largest economy. The Structured Investment Vehicles, Leveraged Buyouts, Collateralised Debt Obligations and Asset Backed Commercial Papers, all suffered a financial crisis in US. Consequently the labour market in US has been adversely affected and there is also a fall in the investor's confidence. Indian Economy is least affected by slowdown in US subprime market. Though rupee appreciation is regarded as a threat to India's economic growth due to falling exports, still an economy with a better spending driven base will follow a path of furter growth.

Astrological Analysis:
A Solar Return has effect from birthday to birthday, so this chart operates from 4 July 2008 to 3 July 2009. The USA SR Ascendant at 210 Gemini conjunct the USA Mars. Americans (Ascendant) will be very angry (Mars). The SR Mars at 10 Leo is conjunct with the SR Saturn at 50 Leo in the SR 4th house. U.S. families (4th house) will be under extreme pressure (Mars Saturn), and many of them will still be losing sons on the battlefield. The USA SR Neptune at 230 Aquarius is in conjunction with the SR 10th house. The USA self-confidence is at low ebb. More lies (Neptune) from a government (10th house) "out of control" (Neptune). While the latter period of 2008 will bring the greatest difficulty this year, we are witnessing the beginning of a downward trend. Hand braking this is the positive Jupiter Saturn trine, which doesn't leave until November 2008. And for that reason it could be more of a slow motion derailment to begin with.

Here Ganesha says that the actual timing of market correction had been started with the retrogration of Saturn in Leo with 14:35:30 degrees. Moreover Sun in Capricorn supported in hitting the market. The transit of Mercury should not be forgotten. The position of Mars in Gemini with 00:44:44 played a vital role. These planetary forces generally denote bearish trends of high level of scale in the markets. Mars is considered as a Bullish Planet. However Gemini is the sign of Bearish trend. In direct motion after retrogression, if Mars is located in Gemini, it registers a Bearish trend.

What Next?
The high level of Volatility seems during February 20, 2008 to February 25, 2008. The main reason of these big electrical waves is Sun-Saturn opposition and direct motion of Mercury after retrogression. Ganesha foresees that after completing February, Market may have stability at the level of 19,300. During the next two months after February, market may have Bullish attitude but not strong, feels Ganesha.

Ganesha's wishes are with all the investors and shareholders.

Vote on world's next megabubble - 'Peak Oil' vs. 'alternative energy' vs. 9 billion people in 2050 spells war

2008-02-12T16:48:00.001+05:30

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ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Hollywood tag lines fit Exxon Mobil's $40 billion profit as well as the movies: "There will be Blood. There will be Greed. There will be Vengeance."

Our "war of civilizations" is not of theologies but a primal battle to control basic resources essential to survival. Yes, there is blood ... and oil ... and greed ... and vengeance ... and wars for survival.
At the highest level, this war's being waged in the elite towers of Wall Street and London and Dubai and Singapore: Quants in Turnbull & Asher shirts trading commodity derivatives, gunning for megabonuses, soaring high, like stealth bombers detached from the bloody fighting 40,000 feet below.

That's also how Eric Janszen's radar reads the world in Harpers Magazine's "The Next Bubble." Inside a thought-bubble common on Wall Street, he invents a new economic theory from the simple observation "that the Internet and the housing hyperinflations transpired within a period of 10 years."
Get it? Two bubbles, 10 years apart: An anomaly, yet suddenly we have a bizarre new economic theory: "There will and must be many more such booms, for without them the United States can no longer function. The bubble cycle has replaced the business cycle."
Warning, this "new economy" is a tired old theory driven by utopian dreams of uninterrupted growth and perpetual prosperity, one that, unfortunately, consumes modern economic and political thought. It rejects contrary evidence, is blind to alternatives. Recessions are bad. In this latest spin, we're asked to believe that the economy will only survive if it endures bubble after bubble after bubble, like a raging volcano of oil bubbling from the earth's core, insatiable, a planet consuming its own life blood.

'Alternative energy' bubble or PR gimmick?

We're told the "next bubble" is already here: "Alternative energy," says Janszen. In his new "perpetual bubble-blowing machine" theory this means that biofuels, solar, wind, nuclear, hydroelectric and geothermal energies are the new bubble, until it peaks and "creatively destructs" around 2013.
2013? Yes, then Wall Street will replace it with a new bubble. Bubble after bubble, accelerating, increasing in size and frequency ad infinitum. And each time, "we will be left to mop up after yet another devastated industry," while Wall Street "will already be engineering its next opportunity." Unfortunately, the only thing perpetual is greed.

Small wonder Janszen dismisses my challenge on his iTulip.com Web site, claiming I have "no idea how the economy actually works." And yet, since my days at Morgan Stanley, I've seen many other theories that undercut this bizarre idea of a "perpetual bubble-blowing machine" which is predicated on a weak assumption: That the planet has an inexhaustible supply of oil and other natural resources. Unfortunately, that assumption is faith-based wishful thinking, much like Greenspan, Bernanke and Paulson's assumptions that the subprime problems were "contained."

'Peak Oil' and 'Bubble Blowing' theory

The main alternative is "Peak Oil" theory, which the world's Exxon-Mobils hate. "Peak Oil" forecasts a different end game. Janszen's theory simply predicts America's economy will "creatively self-destruct" in 2013 while Wall Street is busy creating a newer, bigger bubble. In marked contrast, "Peak Oil" forecasts:
A "not-so-creative destruction" of the oil industry
The end of Wall Street's "bubble-blowing machine"
A steady decline of the oil-dependent global economy
Widespread resources wars intensifying through the 21st century

Doom and gloom? Certainly among investors in the world's Exxon-Mobils. But before dismissing "Peak Oil," read a few books like: "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock & the World Economy," "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash," "The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous World," and others exposing "Big Oil's" rosy estimates of inexhaustible oil reserves, new exploration technologies, geopolitics conflicts and, above all, the inability of supply-side scenarios to meet demand as the global population bubble explodes in the 21st century.

Also see "The End of the Oil Age" in the latest Bloomberg Markets. It forecasts the peak in 2018, after that demand outruns supply. For more on "Peak Oil," check out lifeaftertheoilcrash.net with an open mind: "Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, bankers and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global 'Peak Oil.'" Visit the site.

Megathreat: Exploding population vs. stagnant supply

We're at the "Oil Peak," but not the population peak. Supply is declining. Soon, megabillion earnings will be history: "Worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world's population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependent economies will crumble and resource wars will explode."

Question: Even if "alternative energy" is the next bubble, is it a realistic solution? No. It cannot meet future demand. Big Oil's certainly not betting on it. In a recent Fast Company report we learned that "Big Oil companies are investing less that 1% of their capital budgets in alternative energy sources." Big Oil even jokes about alternative energy: "Man left the Stone Age not because he ran out of stone," says Red Cavaney, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. "We'll leave the age of oil, but it won't be because we ran out of oil." Their token investments in alternatives are just PR gimmicks.

But this reality won't stop Wall Street from hyping and milking the "alternative energies" bubble, just as it milked the dot-com and subprime bubbles. Wall Street's greed has become dangerously anti-American. Subprime killed the "American Dream" of millions of homeowners. Wall Street diluted the equity of millions of its own investors with huge write-offs and insulted Americans by selling off equity to sovereign equity funds, all while paying outrageous bonuses to nearly everyone in the industry.

Vote on the next big bubble

Recently I read "American Economic Bubble," which Janszen co-authored a couple years ago. The authors predicted a perfect storm of multiple bubbles reaching critical mass simultaneously, triggering a "bubblequake:"

Federal deficits bubble
Inflated U.S. dollar bubble
Foreign trade deficit bubble
Overvalued stock market bubble
Real estate bubble
Consumer debt bubble
Back then, in 2005, I included "Peak Oil" and 13 other bubbles in my "Megabubble Meltdown Poll." But we weren't the only ones who saw this "train wreck" coming. We often reported on warnings from Buffett, Bogle, Grantham, Shilling and other realists. See previous Paul B. Farrell.

This reality was also obvious to America's leaders, including Greenspan, Bernanke, Paulson and many of Wall Street and Corporate America's hot-shot CEOs. Yes, they all saw it coming years ago. They could have stopped it, but greed blinded them. They got trapped in denial, purposely misled Main Street and let the "train wreck" happen. Warning: Greed will continue driving their decisions in the future. You cannot trust them.

In short, America's Bubble Economy's prediction, though ignored, was accurate: "Never in our history have all these factors and conditions coexisted at the same time ... No one can predict the exact moment when our linked bubbles will begin to burst, but this much we know: it's not a matter of if, but a matter of when ... In other words, our bubbles will burst and our economy will fall. Think Internet Bubble, times 10."

Vote. Please add your comments. Tell us: Is "Peak Oil" really the "megabubble?" Or do you believe we've reached critical mass with all of them, a perfect storm nearing a flash point: "The Internet Bubble times 10?"

Yahoo or BHP Biliton Deal? US or World? Mineral or Software? or Think Big, Think Future!!

2008-02-12T15:58:00.000+05:30

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Answer following :

A) Is US economy the best in world?
B) Is US your dream country for future

Answer of most of you is yes? But now things are changing fast. Listen to this video, YAHOO Merger or Mineral Companies. What is your choice. Think Think and Think, Obvious choices are things of past. Think Big, Think Future!!

Dow Industrail Changes - Bank Of America and Chevron In, What's Out?

2008-02-12T15:53:00.000+05:30

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Your Stock Queries Answered by SP Tulsian 08-FEB-2008

2008-02-10T16:59:00.000+05:30

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Dear Sir, I have Tata Chemical s 25 shares@296 and SAL Stell 100 @ 28.What is the future of these stocks.Thanks & Regards
Ans : Exit from both.

Whether it would be good to buy crompton greaves at currect levent of Rs. 280. Target for 6 months period
Ans : Very good stock and share price of Rs.350 is possible in the next 6 months.

I have idfc 25 @232 , rpl 100 @257, powergrid 50@ 116 plz tell scope for these stocks for 1-2 months
Ans : Don't expect much in the next 1 - 2 months.

Hi Sir, I have GSFC @ 325, Deccan Aviation @ 318, Nagarjuna Fert @ 75, Vijaya Bank @ 90. What is your view on this? Shall I exit? which one to buy?
Ans : Hold Vijaya Bank and exit from others.

Sir I have Reliance energey at 1650 . Should i hold or sell?
Ans : Please Hold.

Respected Sir, I am holding VideoInd 10@825 and TRIL 10@875 what should I do ,Kindly Guide. Thanks
Ans : Hold both.

Sir, My Portfolio:IFCI 2086 @ 94 Manaksia 322 @ 187.5 IspatInd 2348 @ 60.7 Geojit 2045 @ 96.7 Please Suggest me which one to sell, buy more or hold. If I should sell some scrip, then suggest me the best scrip to invest in and recover losses. Overall I am in 29% loss in Portfolio. Please suggest.
Ans : No you would get share at price discovered. If it get discovered at Rs.530, you would get it at Rs.530.

Dear Sir, I have ICICI Bank@1150 and Network 18@323. Are these good stocks for 1 year. If yes how much returns can be expected.
Ans : Both are good stocks to hold for 1 year on which close to 30% annual return can be expected.

Sir, can Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd. be bought?
Ans : Buying is advised at Rs.33 levels.

Sir, Can you let us know Your view on HBL Power Systems. Thanks
Ans : Good stock, remain invested.

Sir,I have 1000 shares of Dena Bank @91.00.Please advise to hold or sell and invest in some other share.
Ans : Please Hold.

Sir,i have 110 edelweiss capital @1749/-.now it is on 1000/-.what is your opinion about this stock.thanks ®ards
Ans : Broking stocks would remain depressed atleast for the next one quarter as all of them have lost its business as also have taken hit on its bottomline, due to bad debts.

I have one question that how much more pain remaining in the market.i m long term investor and first time i waries about market.please advies and suggest support the nifty or sensex?
Ans : Market is not likely to fall below 17K on sensex and 5K on Nifty on a sustainable basis. No need to worry for a long term investor and remain invested in frontliners having prospects in its business.

Sir, can I enter in Suzlon energy, Reliance Petroleum, RNRL and Adlabs Films at current levels for long term investment?
Ans : Adlab Films is preferred while go for RIL instead of RPL. Remain away from RNRL and Suzlon Energy.

DEAR SIR I HAVE 2000 INDUSIND BANK@108. SHOULD I HOLD OR EXIT FOR GREENER PASTURES. KINDLY ADVISE.
Ans : Please Hold.

Can I buy BF Utilities now?
Ans : Yes, but with 12 months view.

Sir, what are the prospects for reliance industries & powergrid for the short term?
Ans : Spurt is certain in both the stocks by March 08, by about 10% from the present levels.

Why jai corp is underperforming, when it can reach 1300? what is an years targer?
Ans : Effect of present market volatility. Share has potential to bounce back to Rs.1,300 in a year's time.

Sir, which stocks could i accumulate for a 100% return over a period of 12 months
Ans : Reduce your expectations to 25% to 40% return in a year.

Sir, I have 1500x37.5 Pearl Polymer. Now it is ruling at around 20. I am in a big loss. Please advice me, whether to exit and invest in other good stock? Please suggest other good stock.
Ans : Move to Jindal Poly or Polyplex Corp.

May i know your view on Granules India, J K Cement, Cinemax India. Which one is best to enter with 3-6 months view?
Ans : Cinemax is preferred at Rs.108.

Dear Sir, is it advisable to buy UTVSOF at current levels with a 1 yr perspective? 800 levels look attractive. your say.....? Thanks for your time.
Ans : Good level to buy at Rs.790 levels with 6 - 9 months view.

Dear sir, kindly advise me on Educomp Solution.please give me a one year target
Ans : Educomp though corrected to Rs.3,800 still looks quite rich as this seems to have run ahead of its fundamentals and more a momentum play.

What is ur opinion on fertilizer stocks? Whether its advised to buy Nagarjuna or Chambal at CMP??
Ans : No.

Sir, thanks for replying my previous query.I have GMR INFRA averaging at 225.Can i buy more , if yes at what price shall i enter??.Also when is it expected to give a returns of about 20-25percent.(from averaging price 200)Thanks for replying.
Ans : Buying is advised at Rs.160 and return of 25% annual, is possible from Rs.200 average levels for the next 3 years. There may be a lull of about 30 - 45 days in the stock.

Pls suggest should i get in to Praj Industries , Peninsula Land at the current levels , with a Horizon of 1 year?
Ans : Buying is advised in Praj Ind. at Rs.160 and in Peninsula Land at Rs.85 but exit on a return of 20% to 25% as they are more of trading nature rather than investment.

Dear Sir, Can we count one of the part of this volatility in market is due to Reliance Power Issue? & can we make insvestment from Tuesday (12/02/08) or still wait for some Down?
Ans : Start buying from Monday. Reliance Power IPO sucked huge liquidity from the system which now has come back to the market.

Pls give your valuable suggestion on Merck stock for buyiny at current level and suggest some very good stock in financial sector or banking for buy at current level for 2 years ,thanks
Ans : Merck inspite of reporting EPS of close to Rs.40, the share would remain rangebound at Rs.350 to Rs.400 levels as no growth is expected from the company. Buy Dhanlakshmi Bank, City Union Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank of India.

I have 500 oswal chemical @ 62 and now it currently trading at 49 so can i buy more at current level or wait for more correction and what is target for three month
Ans : Expect price close to Rs.65 in the next three months and more buying can be made at the current levels of Rs.45.

I am holding Essar oil, Radico, KCP and Adlabs, ur view on the scrips.
Ans : Keep medium to long term view on KCP and Adlab Films while trading or short term view on Radico and Essar Oil.

Hello Sir, I have TATA MOTORS @ 802 HOLD or EXIT plz advice?
Ans : Please Hold.

Sir ur view om Mukta Arts & Mundra Port for 2 to 1 years how much returns expect.
Ans : Both the stocks can give you 25% returns, annually for the next two years.

Sir,My portfolio is 125 BIOCON@415,100 OMAXE@284,65 BHEL@2675,100 Empee Dist@295,430 GMRInfra@230,5000 LloydSteel @22.00,1500 Nag Fertiliger@39,1100 Powgrid@146.I am worried with current fluctuations.I can hold them for 5 years if I am sure that I get a decent returns without loss. Please advice me
Ans : An investor having 5 years view should not worry from these volatility which is part and inbuilt- into market. Exit from Lloyd Steel and Nagarjuna Fertiliser while remain invested in others.

Dear sir,i would like to understand what will happen IF RELIANCE POWER did not list as expected means listed lower how will it affect our market.please share your view.
Ans : No bearing on the market, as one stock can't influence the behaviour and direction of the market.

Dear Sir, I have Powrgrid 900 shares@ 140 and NTPC 200 @ 220. I have a horizon of 2 years. How much returns I can expect. Thanks & Regards
Ans : Both the stocks can give you 30% plus, annualised return over the next two years.

Hello sir, i would like to know the future prospects of Deepak Fertilizers. Is it good to buy at current levels looking at its future growth ? What do u feel about the overall fertilizer sector ? I am a long term investor. Thanks.
Ans : Deepak Fertiliser is not a fertiliser company but a chemical company. Its topline and bottomline from fertiliser sector is less than 5 per cent. Buying is not advised now at Rs.140 levels.

I would like to invest fifty thousand for two or three month in small script so advise me and also tell me which stock is good from this two noida toll,oswal chemical
Ans : Oswal Chemicals.

I hold gmr infra shares i need a target price for at least 3 years as i can hold it for 3 years. kindly answer
Ans : Close to Rs.500.

I am holding Mindtree at IPO and KPIT Cummins @125. What is your take on these companies for medium term.
Ans : Not very positive.

Please advise me on Solar explosives 100 shares, SREI Infra 200 shares, Tourism Finance Corp 500 shares.
Ans : Hold all three for 3 - 6 months.

Dear sir, I have 1000 premier @210, what i do to recover the loss, please advice me like your own brother. thanks a lot.
Ans : The company has been posting good quarterly results and FY 08 EPS is likely to be around Rs.8. No need to exit at Rs.125. Remain invested.

Rajesh expport is at 130 now, is it a good buy now.
Ans : Not really.

Sir, What is your view on Indiabulls financial and bag films
Ans : Positive on both.

Sir, Thanks for answering my query regarding power grid, J.P hydro from investment perspective yesterday. further i would like to know why J.P Hydro is not good from investment perspective i came to knwo that their plant will be starting from this year. please enlighten me.
Ans : Reached its full value and when compared to other power generating company, also this stock looks fully priced.

Sir, I got allotted 15 shares of Reliance power in my 2 a/c's. i am an investor, can i hold them and buy further on declines or sell them and buy later on. Thanks
Ans : Sell them at Rs.600 and buy later on.

Sir thanks for response of my query i would like to one more your valuable suggestion on following shares i have buy dmc int at 36 and electro casting steel at 75 what should i do sell or remin
Ans : Not very positive outlook on DMC International and hence advised exit while remain invested in Electrosteel Castings.

Dear Sir I would like to know future of GSPL for next 3 years
Ans : A pipeline company with presence in North Gujarat. Share can double in 3 years from current level of Rs.80.

Sir, What are your views on Celestial Labs, VIP Industries & Zylog Systems. I am long term investor (12 to 24 months). Thanks.
Ans : Except for VIP Industries other two stocks are good having growth potential and justifies holding for 12 - 24 months.

I have 625 shares on India Hotels @ 160. Heard there is a rights issue @ 70. Howmany shares would I get from the rights isue. What do you suggest. Please suggest. many thanks
Ans : Rights issue is at Rs.70 in ratio of 1 share for every 5 shares held with record date at 28-02-08.

Sir i have mundra port at 1030 kindly advice me
Ans : Hold with 12 months view.

Sir, I hold 50 shares of stone india@216.Please give some informations on this stock.
Ans : Stone India is a good company with EPS of FY 08 likely to be above Rs.15. Due to concern on Management, share enjoys low discounting, inspite of being into engineering sector, which enjoys higher PE multiple.

I have Dhanalaxmi bank @ 97 shall i buy more @81
Ans : Buying is advised at the current levels of Rs.80.

Sir,Do you advise buying Ador Fontech at this level,as it has posted very good numbers in this quarter and also the promoters having hiked their stake?
Ans : A tiny company but good buy at Rs.120 as FY 08 EPS is likely to be close to Rs.20. December 07 quarter results were extremely good with PAT of Rs.2.80 crores on an equity of Rs.3.50 crores giving an EPS of Rs.20.

Sir, please do respond this time. My holdings: Ispat 300@48, Powergrid 33@147, SAHPetro 1400@27.5, PetLNG 200@113, MRPL 300@137.5, Bhandari Hosiery200@31, Noida Toll 476@80, TTML 50@63. Please advise on above. I have Rs. 1 Lac to invest, which scrip I should invest in. Regards, Keshav

Ans : Exit from Ispat, Sah Petro, MRPL, TTML and Bhandari Hosiery. You may buy RIL, Adlab Films, Punj Lloyds or GMR Infra.

Sir,have been holding ingersol rand for a long time.bought at 360 and again averaged in crash around 290.what arre your views on the stock?
Ans : An excellent multinational stock with leader in Drilling equipment. EPS is likely to be close to Rs.20. But may not be able to give you a return of more than 20% annually. Any delisting move by the promoters of the company may see a big spurt in share price as they are presently having 74% stake.

Sir I am holding 50 shares of Everonn Systems. What is 1 year prospects?
Ans : Positive.

Hello Sir With (reliance infratel) RTIL IPO on the way Can we see an upside in Telecom stocks just as we saw in the case of Rel Power??
Ans : Not likely as RTIL is into Telecom infrastructure and not a service provider.

I have 28share jet airways of issue prize 1100 can i hold or sell that . if i sell in which scrip i buy
Ans : Convert to RIL or GMR Infra.

I m holding MTNL future lot @ 212. hv rolled over to march.series. how can i minimise my loss/shld hold or book loss? switch over to sm other script...? plz plz give ur valuable advise..
Ans : Not much upside is seen in MTNL in the next couple of months. Needs to make money from other counters.

Can you please recommend value buys in the logistics space. Thanks
Ans : Blue Dart and Aegis Logistics.

I have 250 share of RPL @ 220 what is the future of this stock.
Ans : Till the refinery of the company gets commenced, share price is not likely to go past Rs.200. Best option now is to convert RPL to RIL.

Sir, I have siemens bought @ 2020, am I entitled to get bonus share(RD 3/3) will its price further fall following decalration of bonus share
Ans : Bonus would not make price to fall except for ex-bonus and which shall reduce price from Rs.1,600 to Rs.800, per share.

Sir Plz give your view on Nocil
Ans : Not very much impressed with the working as rubber chemical division is not even able to show an EPS of Rs.2. Land holding of the company at Thane, revives interest in the scrip, for which we are not convinced. Advised exit beyond Rs.40.

Please advise, what should i do with GIPCL i have 200@170
Ans : An established power generating company likely to report an EPS of close to Rs.10 for FY 08. Also carrying out expansion for power generation, based on lignite, near Surat. Probably, cheaper power generating stock and advised to remain invested.

I have 32 REL INFRA @ 2700. Can hld for 3-6 monthe.What to do hold or sell?
Ans : No need to panic if you have 12 months view.

How do you see the future of Clariant Chemicals with a one year view. I sthere any possibilty of declaring a bonus this year?
Ans : Bonus is not likely, but due to huge land which is likely to get sold, its a good stock to hold or can be bought at Rs.270.

Sirji, Please advise on Ballarpur Industries at current price (148). ICICI direct seems to be giving a target of 241 in 9 months.
Ans : Not likely.

Is there any possibilty of ABB declaring a bonus this year,?
Ans : Not likely.

Is Finolex Cables a good buy at the current price as they have gone in for aggressive expansion.
Ans : Yes.

Sir i have rpl@255, power grid@152, ispat@68, alpa@52, noida toll@65 so i hold or exit please suggest me sapreately thanking you
Ans : Exit from RPL, Ispat and Alpa.

Sir, i hold 100 of Supreme Petro @ 48 & 100 of Visasteel @ 54 what should i do
Ans : Exit from both.

Is it good option to invest in Tata Teleservices(Maharashtra) Ltd at present level of Rs.40/=. If yes, then is it better for short term or long term? Thanks!
Ans : Not advised for short or long term, both.

HELLO SIR, I HAVE PURCHASED 100 TCS @ 827 AFTER THE CRASH. SHOULD I BE IN FOR LONG TERM OR SHOULD SELL AT CURRENT PRICE. THANK YOU.
Ans : Hold for about 6 months.

Sir, I have 40 shares of REL @2500 when is it expected to cross 2500
Ans : Post Reliance Power listing and by May - June 08. Remain invested.

Dear Sir, I am planning to buy each 5000 shares of Man Industries (120) and Power Grid (115) at the current rate. May I have your valuable advice in this regard at this juncture? Thank u.
Ans : Both are very good stocks to buy at the current rate. Go for it.

Sir, I hold 50 shares of JM FInancial @2600.Please give some informations on this stock.Pls Pls reply sir.
Ans : Exit now as you are in profit.

I have 1500 share of powergrid @ 145 for one year prospetive should i hold or exit
Ans : Hold.

Gold Rats for sale

2008-02-08T00:07:00.001+05:30

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Hong Kong gold shops sell rat charms ahead of Chinese new year

Big tummies, cunning smiles and friendly eyes, these creatures are available to buy both big and small.

Euros Accepted

2008-02-07T23:58:00.001+05:30

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - In the latest example that the U.S. dollar just ain't what it used to be, some shops in New York City have begun accepting euros and other foreign currency as payment for merchandise.

"We had decided that money is money and we'll take it and just do the exchange whenever we can with our bank," Robert Chu, owner of East Village Wines, told Reuters television.

The increasingly weak U.S. dollar, once considered the king among currencies, has brought waves of European tourists to New York with money to burn and looking to take advantage of hugely favorable exchange rates.

"We didn't realize we would take so much in and there were that many people traveling or having euros to bring in. But some days, you'd be surprised at how many euros you get," Chu said.

"Now we have to get familiar with other currencies and the (British) pound and the Canadian dollars we take," he said.

While shops in many U.S. towns on the Canadian border have long accepted Canadian currency and some stores on the Texas-Mexico border take pesos, the acceptance of foreign money in Manhattan was unheard of until recently.

Not far from Chu's downtown wine emporium, Billy Leroy of Billy's Antiques & Props said the vast numbers of Europeans shopping in the neighborhood got him thinking, "My God, I should take euros in at the store."

Leroy doesn't even bother to exchange them.

"I'm happy if I take in 200 euros, because what I do is keep them," he said. "So when I go back to Paris, I don't have to go through the nightmare of going to an exchange place."

(Reporting by Angela Moore, writing by Bill Berkrot; Editing by Doina Chiacu)

ECB maintains 4% but BOE cuts by Quarter

2008-02-07T18:33:00.000+05:30

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LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Inflationary threats trumped fears of an economic slowdown Thursday, prompting the European Central Bank to leave its key interest rate on hold.
The move came less than an hour after the Bank of England, citing growth worries, cut its key lending rate by a quarter-point to 5.25%.

The ECB's decision to hold the base rate at 4% was widely expected, but is likely to meet criticism from politicians and business leaders who contend the central bank is imperiling the European economy by ignoring signs of a broad slowdown.

The bank sets interest rate policy for the 15 countries that use the euro.
Central bank officials in recent weeks have acknowledged the likely need to revise down growth forecasts, but have also highlighted inflation pressures.

Euro-zone consumer inflation remained around 3.2% on an annual basis in January, well above the ECB's medium-term target of around 2%

Coal prices running much ahead of Oil

2008-02-07T18:23:00.000+05:30

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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Coal, whose price surge has already outrun those of crude oil and natural gas, is generating an even louder buzz as a rash of bad weather has reduced its production globally.

Citigroup earlier this week raised its forecast for thermal coal, saying it now expects prices for the benchmark product to double this year as blizzards in China, power outages in South Africa, and floods in Queensland cut into global output. Meanwhile, demand for coal keeps rising as the world's electricity use expands.
Coal is poised to continue its rally as "tight markets are being further squeezed by new developments," Alan Heap, an analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a research note.
Prices already have had a remarkable run. Thermal coal prices at Newcastle,
Australia -- an Asian benchmark for coal used in power generation -- jumped 73% last year, beating crude oil as the best performing energy commodity. This year, coal futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange have gained 42%, a contrast with oil futures' nearly 10% decline and a 6% rise for natural gas.
Citigroup's Heap now sees coal reaching $100 per ton at the end of 2008, nearly double 2007's year-end price. Other investment banks, including UBS AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co., also raised their estimates for prices of both power-generating and steelmaking, or metallurgical, coal.

The recent run-up in fuel prices means higher costs for consumers and industries heavily dependent on electricity. In China, which gets most of its electricity from coal, smaller metals manufacturers could go out of business due to higher electricity prices, analysts said. At the same time, higher traditional energy prices are likely to push China and other countries to pursue alternative energies to heavily-polluting coal.

Surging coal prices have generally meant good times for miners, however. Shares of Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal producer, soared 60% last year, although its shares gave back some of those gains this year amid disappointing earnings and fears of a U.S. slowdown.
Arch Coal Inc. shares have gained 4.4% this year, adding to the 46% gain last year. Shares of Consol Energy Inc. have also moved higher after more than doubling last year. London shares in Switzerland's Xstrata PLC (UK:XTA: news, chart, profile) , one of the world's largest coal miners, have jumped nearly 10% this year after soaring 40% last year.

Snowstorms
A streak of bad weather is responsible for the recent run in coal prices.
Over the past month, deadly snowstorms raging across China grounded the country's transportation system, cutting off coal supplies. Stalled freight trains brought the country's coal reserves to a short-term low. The current stock of coal for power generation is less than half of the normal amount, which is usually enough for 15 days of consumption, according to Minggao Shen, an analyst at Citigroup.

More than 80% of China's power generation comes from burning coal, government data show.

David Riedel, president of overseas-equity specialist Riedel Research Group, anticipates China will sharply increase coal imports in the coming months to build its reserves. Coal demand from China, the world's largest coal consumer, "will be very strong in February and March," said Riedel.
China, a net coal importer, recently banned coal exports until March, a factor that could further push coal prices higher.

Long-term demand for coal is also high. Demand growth from China is estimated 1.5 times above its GDP growth, which stood at 11.4% last year, Heap said. Those factors have pushed up the front-month coal futures contract to nearly $80 per ton Tuesday, up from $56 per ton at the end of last year. U.S.-traded coal futures are rising because the U.S. is shipping more coal to Europe, which has seen its coal imports from Africa and Australia disrupted, said Charlotte Wright, a coal analyst at Platts, a commodities information provider.

Coal prices in Asia are running even higher. Prices at Newcastle spiked to $116.44 a ton for the week ending Feb. 1, a historic high, according to globalCoal NEWC index. The barometer tracks coal prices at Newcastle, the world's biggest coal-export harbor.

Yahoo Takeover by Microsoft - What should Yahoo do?

2008-02-07T14:58:00.000+05:30

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Yahoo Inc could throw up a series of defenses against a proposed takeover by Microsoft Corp in next few weeks, but most say the likely outcome will be a higher price from the software giant and a deal.

Fighting Microsoft's $31-a-share offer in a friendly way could see Yahoo argue the bid, made Friday, undervalues the Internet company, which could ultimately lead to talks and a higher bid from Microsoft.

Or Yahoo could take an aggressive stand with the aim of staying independent, arguing a deal with the software giant could create a clash of cultures and fail antitrust tests. Yahoo has said it has not decided whether to accept or rebuff the overture.

"The best strategy would be to try to find some thought of a competing bid," said Joel Greenberg, partner and co-chair of Kaye Scholer LLP's Corporate and Finance Department. "Any suggestion that there's someone else out there is the best possible way to increase the price."

There's been some talk of interest from other potential bidders or a partnership with Google Inc. However, analysts see that as an unlikely scenario.

Citigroup, in a research report on Tuesday, gave the chance of another bidder emerging at just 5 percent and saw a 25 percent chance that Yahoo would hire Google to run its search operations.

Citigroup said it sees the likeliest outcome, at a 40 percent chance, for Yahoo to reject the initial offer and Microsoft to raise its bid.

"DO WHAT IS NEEDED"

UBS said in a research note that Microsoft "will do what is needed to get this deal done."

"In a hostile deal the acquirer usually does not lead with its best and final offer and we would not be surprised to see Microsoft sweeten the pot somewhat to make the decision easier for Yahoo's board," the investment bank wrote.

One investment banker not involved in either side speculated that a typical strategy would see Yahoo try to attract another bidder.

If that fails, Yahoo could try and claim it can create more shareholder value by staying independent and striking alliances, perhaps with Google. That would increase pressure on Microsoft to up its bid.

Yahoo's first defense move could be to argue that $31 a share is an unfair price, supported by a valuation report prepared by the company's investment bankers, who are likely working round the clock on the firm's strategy.

Yahoo hired Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to represent it, according to research firm Dealogic.

Yahoo has some takeover defense at its disposal, as it has a poison pill. But it does not have a classified board, a mechanism allowing board members to serve for different term lengths rather than being reelected annually.

Microsoft could get board control at one meeting if it were to launch a proxy fight for board seats, and could put some time pressure on Yahoo.

"One of the things Yahoo has to be very concerned about is ... its shareholder composition," said Greenberg. If that shifts so investors are in the stock only for arbitrage reasons, they'd have "a shareholder population that won't tolerate sitting still."

Yahoo could argue for a higher mix of cash in the offer price, or some protection against movement in Microsoft's stock, which has fallen since it announced its bid, reducing the value of the $44.6 billion offer to about $42 billion.

WOW FACTOR

The 62 percent premium bid that Microsoft offered could help hurry things along, some thought.

"I think the deal makes sense for Microsoft and I think Microsoft wants to do the deal strongly and will therefore find a way to make it happen," said Ken Allen, an investment analyst at money manager T.Rowe Price.

He expects it won't take too long for a conclusion to be reached.

"I think that's why they offered a 62 percent premium," Allen said. "I think they wanted to make it somewhat of a 'wow' offer in the first place to try and stimulate it to happen quickly."

Shareholders disagreed over what Yahoo should do next.

Mike Binger, a fund manager at Thrivent Financial in Minneapolis, who owns both Yahoo and Microsoft shares in client portfolios, said on Friday that it would be very hard for Yahoo as a stand-alone entity to grow its stock to $31 in the next few years. He argued $31 was a "very fair price for the state of Yahoo's business fundamentals right now."

But two institutional investors holding Yahoo shares who declined to be named thought the company should reject the offer and start a dialogue with Microsoft to extract a higher bid.

Tata Chemical's Acquisition - Is Downgrade justifiable after Corus comeback?

2008-02-06T00:43:00.000+05:30

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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- It is a story investors in India's Tata Group are familiar with.

With another member of the diversified Indian conglomerate, Tata Chemicals, looking to spread its wings globally with a big-ticket acquisition, memories of the short-term pain associated with similar approaches earlier by Tata Steel and Tata Tea have been revisited.

The $1 billion acquisition of U.S.-based General Chemical Industrial Products last week by the Indian chemicals and fertilizers company may well have shaken investor, as its stock lost more than 11% in just two days, taking its losses since the beginning of 2008 to nearly 30%.

The acquisition announcement came after a round of correction for Indian as well as global equities, which also took a toll on the stock. To make matters worse, Tata Chemicals' October-December performance fell below market expectations. Then, Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investor Service greeted news of the acquisition by placing the company's foreign-currency ratings on watch with negative implications, citing a possible deterioration in Tata Chemicals' financial profile in funding the takeover.

A ratings downgrade will predictably make the going tougher for Tata Chemicals, which reportedly plans to use both equity and debt to raise funds to complete the deal. But the company will really have to bungle up to earn the downgrade, and there is no precedent as yet of a Tata group company doing that with global buys. The integration of Anglo-Dutch steelmaker, Corus Group, with Tata Steel is apparently proceeding smoothly. Tata Tea made a neat packet when it sold its stake in U.S.-based enhanced water maker, Energy Brands, a few months ago.

Prima facie, the acquisition makes sense for Tata Chemicals from a strategic viewpoint. General Chemical's strong foothold as a producer of soda ash - a commodity used to make glass and detergents - and will add to Tata Chemicals' own capacity, making it the world's second largest producer of the commodity and giving it economies of scale. It also spreads Tata Chemicals' global footprint by giving a presence in North and Latin Americas, as well as Far East Asia.
Even financially, the timing worked for the company. Like Managing Director Homi Khusrokhan reportedly pointed out, the buy came at a time the Indian rupee is strong against the dollar. And raising debt overseas should be less burdensome than a few months ago, given the drop in U.S. interest rates.

One of the reasons for Tata Chemicals' poor performance in the latest quarter was that it refinanced a certain part of its costly debt by bearing prepayment penalties in a one-off settlement. The positive impact from that move should be felt in subsequent quarters and should allow Tata to keep interest costs lower, even when it takes on board additional debt to fund the purchase.

Financing the transaction shouldn't be a big deal, although Tata Chemicals' market
value, at around $1.7 billion, isn't significantly higher than what it agreed to pay for General Chemical. And it's not just because the company enjoys the "Tata" brand name. Tata Chemicals has significant investments in several other Tata group companies, listed and unlisted, which it should be able to divest at a fair value within the group in the worst case scenario.

Its investments in listed cousins including Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Indian Hotels, Titan Industries, Tata Tea, Tata Investment Corp. and Rallis are worth at least $375 million at current prices. And the value of its rather significant shareholding in unlisted group firms such as Tata Sons (Tata group's holding company), Tata Industries and Tata Teleservices is estimated to be even higher.

ISM Data Blues - US recession and layoffs fears further deep?

2008-02-06T00:30:00.000+05:30

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Companies that have slammed the brakes on spending, expansion plans and staffing will likely tighten the screws even further after data on Tuesday suggested the U.S. is heading into a full recession.

Companies in industries ranging from apparel to industrial equipment to home improvement retailers had started to shutter units, cut inventory and lay off employees as the foundering housing market cut demand for their products. But Tuesday's data showed the pain was likely to worsen.

A report on the U.S. services sector showed a dramatic and wholly unexpected contraction in the largest part of the economy. It was the largest monthly drop on record.

"We see further retrenchment" in spending and cost cuts, said Matthew Kaufler, a fund manager with Clover Capital Management, in an interview with Reuters. "The number signifies the worst fears that were out there that this is going to be a broader and deeper slowdown than thought."

Investors shed stocks after the report, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Index .DJI down 2 percent by midday.

"On face value, this index tells you that this recession we are heading into will be worse than the one in 2001," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. "Business activity falls to an unprecedented level. We could see significant layoffs in February."

FURTHER RETRENCHMENT

Companies from various sectors of the economy have made cautionary statements about their outlooks.

Fourth-quarter earnings were down 20.7 percent, although mainly due to the impact of the credit crisis on banks. Now there is increasing concern that the weakness is spreading into other areas.

Plus-size women's apparel chain Charming Shoppes Inc (CHRS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it would cut its capital budget even more than it had planned in August.

It also announced it had slashed 13 percent of its management positions, cut new store openings by 30 percent and would close 150 of its more than 2,400 stores.

Diversified manufacturer Tyco International Ltd (TYC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) told investors in a Tuesday conference call that its ADT security unit was "seeing some softness in our sales in North America as some of our large retail customers have pushed back their spending in new systems or upgrades."

Tyco said it believed these "are delays rather than cancellations" but some investors fear that a recession could tip the balance. Shares of Tyco, which were up some 3 percent before the ISM data, were down 4 percent at midday.

Cities too have cut budgets and will likely cut them more after lower home prices and sales have reduced real estate tax proceeds. IDEX Corp (IEX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is one of several makers of emergency rescue equipment that have suffered as municipalities reduce spending.

"If the economy falls into recession, it's going to mean companies will see it in their results and companies are quick to cut back payrolls when demand drops," said John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Fund manager Kaufler said companies that provide construction equipment, home goods and consumer products, as well as financial services would likely be the hardest hit.

"We are very cautious on the homebuilding" sector, he said, adding that his near-term outlook for building supply companies such as Home Depot Inc (HD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and home decor specialist Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was weak.

Also, diversified industrial companies "are in for some pain," he said, declining to name any.

After FED move, now Euro Drop as ECB Rate cuts seen this week

2008-02-06T00:25:00.000+05:30

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro slid against most major currencies on Tuesday as dismal euro zone service sector data fueled expectations the European Central Bank might follow the United States in cutting interest rates.

The dollar pared early U.S. gains versus the yen after a report showed a sharp drop in activity in the U.S. service sector as well in January. The weak data reinforced fears the economy is slowing even as the Federal Reserve cuts rates aggressively to revive growth.

The euro fell more than 1 percent against the dollar after figures showed service sector growth across the 15-nation bloc slowed in January to its most sluggish in 4-1/2 years. Germany, Spain and Italy registered contractions.

A separate report showed euro-zone retail sales defied expectations of a monthly rise in December and fell, underscoring a slowing economy.

"They are not insulated from a global slowdown," said Brian Taylor, head currency trader at M&T Bank in Buffalo, New York. He added that "the euro may be trading back at 1.45 to the dollar really soon."

In late morning trading in New York, the euro was down about 1.3 percent at $1.4636, on track for its steepest one-day loss since mid-December.

The euro's weakness against the dollar helped lift the greenback across the board despite the weak U.S. service sector data. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency's value against a basket of six currencies, was up 1.1 percent at 77.436 .DXY, on track for its biggest one-day percentage advance since mid-December and moving further away from two-month lows struck last week.

The sharp drop in European data "played straight into the hands of the euro bears, supporting their argument that the ECB will not be able to remain hawkish much longer and will have to follow the Fed by lowering rates relatively soon," said Boris Schlossberg, chief currency strategist for DailyFX.com.

The ECB meets to set interest rates on Thursday and is expected to keep them on hold at 4 percent.

Against the yen, the dollar traded 0.2 percent higher at 106.89 yen after earlier climbing as high as 107.74. The U.S. currency gave up almost all its gains after the dismal showing in the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index. The index plummeted in January to levels not seen since the 2001 recession.

"The data is extremely dollar-negative, although the inability to sustain dollar losses last week will keep the market skittish and follow-through will be restrained," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

AGGRESSIVE STANCE

The Fed's aggressive rate cuts in recent months lent some dollar support as investors took the view the bold action would sustain the U.S. economy and fuel a recovery later in the year.

The Fed has already slashed rates by 225 basis points and is seen cutting at least another 75 by the end of the year. Futures markets expect the ECB to cut rates by 50 basis points by the third quarter and are split on a further quarter-percentage-point easing before the end of the year.

The Bank of England also meets to set rates on Thursday and is expected to cut borrowing costs a quarter of a percentage point to 5.25 percent. It would be its second rate cut in three months.

Australia's dollar dropped even as benchmark borrowing costs rose to an 11-year high of 7 percent. The Aussie dollar traded down 1.3 percent at $0.8970.

Analysts said trading on Tuesday showed little impact from the race to be a nominated candidate in the U.S. presidential election. Twenty-four of the 50 states were holding nominating contests for the Democratic and Republican parties, and the end of the day, known as Super Tuesday, could even see clear winners for the final run to the November election.

Chat session with Ramesh Damani - What's good investment now?

2008-02-06T00:14:00.000+05:30

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singaraju: Sir, VIP. Good Q3 results. Available still at 300crs map for the fully restructured co. Remains a good VALUE buy, for the long term?.

Ramesh Damani: Results were good and div payout should be higher...looks encouraging

sanjeet_aima: Damani Sir Will the market be under the control of bulls innear future

Ramesh Damani: market seems wounded...thing it will take time to heal

singaraju: Lots of lost values are resurfacing in the mkts. And last week you said that you are giong to watch one more week before making up your mind for further decisions. Now , how do you feel... Time to put in incremental/aditional serious money into the mkts?.

Ramesh Damani: i have bought small stuff here and there but no major item

sanjeet_aima: Damani Sir Is hfcl is agood hold

Ramesh Damani: no

TheMatador: Hello Mr. Damani , your view on education players like Educomp

Ramesh Damani: values are puzzling to me

rajsrini: Hi, I would like to invest regularly in stock (long term) please let me know your advise sector wise.

Ramesh Damani: looking at the current market condition defensive may be better..fmcg. cement..logistics

sandeeparora9: Dear Ramesh following your suggestion, I am sitting on cash waiting for the right time to enter the market. pl suggest when to enter again because we value your suggestion. thanks

Ramesh Damani: it is a very difficult call..u will have to judge yourself will try and tell u what i feel

nehamathur: Initially pnb said that they have given a go ahead for merger. Now they are saying that they will announce whether to merge or not. Is is not unfair for them to announce different things at different point in times. This will confuse investors.

Ramesh Damani: i think they will merge..they need to do it for capital adequacy but it will be decided by the board once valuation report is in hand

nehamathur: Thinking that merger will be a sure event i have major portion of gilts in my portfolio. Do you think it makes sense to lighten a bit considering that they have expressed doubts regarding merger. Because with -ve news we may not get to sell.

Ramesh Damani: i dont give individual portfolio advice

kanupriyaa: Dear Sir, you have had many great mentors?.but for us?you are OUR GREATEST MENTOR. Kindly guide us for the short term case by case. Do you see any technical rally from here in nifty or in any stock? Or do you see a correction and downward trend now or a pullback rally, as REL IPO MONEY is back in the market. Kindly share with us, as we have not been able to profitise in 2007, as we just holded shares and lost our gains. Thanks.

Ramesh Damani: thanks...i have created some cash and am waiting for market to giv eme some clues...markets look a bit tired

pavan_stock: hell sir catching you from new jersey become great fan of you, TCI had decent sales growth,whats reason for such a low profit?

Ramesh Damani: largish capex..look at this stock over 2 to 3 years period not over a few quarters to see realy growth

chandra1: Hi Mr Damani,Thanks for your help. Your follower from Copenhagen. Could you please state why are we saying that we need to be in 10-15?h when we actually lost the opportunity to sell at the peak?

Ramesh Damani: i have been invested well since almost 2003..wanted to take some money of the table..i have never been able to sell at the peak..one knows if a peak happened only in handsite

money67: is there no way to control the wild price movement of shares...some 30% and some 30% down...

Ramesh Damani: we should but it is upto sebi

singaraju: Sir, mcap to sales ratio is a great tool. But it does not catch DEBT and for high dept cos it is less effective. What about ENTERPRICE VALUE to SALES ratio?. Does it serve any useful purpose in spotting under valuation?.

Ramesh Damani: u can use both ....

rvb01845: haldyn glass looks good at 45 cr mcap. your views please

Ramesh Damani: yes..results look good..i have recently added a small qty to my position after the results

singaraju: Sir, not only high input costs are strangling IGARASHI, but the cheap and very large scale CHINEES COMPETITION also. Given its small size, can one hope for the co to scale up and grow against these big big competition?.

Ramesh Damani: raw material prices are falling..motors (small ones) only one co in hK makes i think they will do well

wavestudent: Sir, GE salary bill for quarter has shot up by 100% over Quarter De06.With 6cr. Quat. salary bill , are you bullish on this stock just for low valuation

Ramesh Damani: somehow co has not delivered..cant understand why ..tax bill remains large..patient but frustrated

singaraju: Sir, Bill and Melinda GATES FOUNDATION is taking positions in GEOMETRIC. At a mcap of 430crs, seems a good contra ? value.What is your sense about the co and anything changed for better?.

Ramesh Damani: where did u read that!!!

sharad_bhatt: Hello Sir, How about rethinking about some of your old picks like D-link, Datamatics, Zodiac??? do you think they have any special improvemt for reevaluating them???

Ramesh Damani: i have sold datamatics..zodiac remains sold...dlink has never performed but i used to recommend that years ago

shetty_shwetha: Art as investment. Any views on that? In the middle of all this volatility, need to explore other avenues for investment

Ramesh Damani: take a look at gold..art is for conisseurs

JOEGRANVILLE: ramesh,it is possible as a result of current credit and solvency issues of banks in US, WE might end up with big merger in financal sector in US??/like goldman saach buying citigroup and so forth???/thanks

Ramesh Damani: it is possible...these things happen in us fast..in india ifci is still a basket case

singaraju: Sir, car market in India is surging. As a supplier, whether IGARASHI is well positioned to take advantage in Indian markets?. As for I know, in export markets, China dominates.

Ramesh Damani: i think they are

wmk: SIR JOINING FROM SHARJAH,sir have u been here , sir whats ur broad view on construction and contracting sector, in this sec how is prajaya engineers syndicate ltd., its quoting at 11x pe ,its a play on hyderabad

Ramesh Damani: not familiar with it

nirajpatel108: with Taneja aerospace considering transfer or sale of airfield, hangars buildings etc to a subsidiary by way of sump sale is it time for us small retail to exit?

Ramesh Damani: i think there is upside left

shishirkapadia: Mr. Damani, Hitachi since 3 querters its giving good results . Market is not giving the price to it. Any reasons behind this.

Ramesh Damani: markets do what they do as long as the results are good, and they have been i am comfortable

sudz_123: Dear Sir, as we, your loving chatters have not profitsed at all in 2007, due to holding of shares, do you think we should be buying Pudumjee Pulp and Taneja Aeroscape and Igarshi at current levels, to average?.as we had bought earlier at higher levels. Or is it best to be on cash Sir? Or any other suggestion, Sir? Do guide us well Sir. Thanks

Ramesh Damani: just buying and holding stocks is no recipe for profits..and one year is not an adequate holding period..siemens, crisil took years to mature before rewarding investors..it is a matter of convcition and patience

rjrd: Levergaing power:- I love the businesses like media which have huge leveraging power where even 5%-10% hike in ad rates straight away ballons the bottomline. What are other secular domestic growth areas which offer such growth?

Ramesh Damani: all commodity co's have the same power, cement and sugar to give u an eg

singaraju: This was the first time in the history since June 2004, when a derivative settlement came to an end with an open interest less than the amount with which the series began. The 50 odd points discount with which the Nifty February Futures ended Thursday . Indicates the bearish phase ahed?.

Ramesh Damani: good use of statistics...thanks...

rjrd: Financial Services/Media:- We have only Sundaram Finance and Balaji telefilms in this space. I think apart from Logisitcs these two domestic themes have huge potential in india. On portfolio basis if we have 3-4% allocated to such sectors it is as good as underweight. I think it is time to do some aggresive research in this space and find more picks. Your views?

Ramesh Damani: always a good time to find indervalued stocks

verycool: i am a bit concerned with my portfolio sir. for a while i was 45% up but this wild market caused me a loss of 10%. i am still holding on though, did not sell anything. whats your take on this sir?

Ramesh Damani: dont give ind portfolio advise ..sorry...

nehamathur: Sir, PNB gilts chariman said that within 15 days they will announce merger or not. Does he mean he will announce ratio also or only that merger will take place?

Ramesh Damani: ratios and decision to do it

nirajpatel108: what would be the next major development at Hitachi to make its growth and value stronger?

Ramesh Damani: commercial a/c systems..that should be a big growth area

sudhakajaria: Dear Sir, do you see any movement in any stock now? ITHL, ATFL, PUDIMJEE, IGARSHI, NIFTY, any trend that you see. Please, please share with us. You know how much we owe you and want to follow you to make our family run through equities. Please, kindly share some thing. Are markets still volatile?

Ramesh Damani: nothing to add..markets go through rough periods we are in one now

paliwala: every body in the market says dont go for midcap they may go up but when they will fall their will no body to buy them so buy large cap according your capacity your view please?

Ramesh Damani: dont listen to any one //bUY VALUE..whether large ..mid ..or small cap..buy them with a margin of safety and wait patiently.good business grow better with time

jack_21: sir,if you were to invest money now in stock markets, which would be your pick or picks??or would you stay out??

Ramesh Damani: i bought HOEC (105)...seems good from a risk reward basis...it is a trading position at this time

barren: One stock least covered by Analyst, but appears to be in strong position also, de-listing theory-Castrol-R u still bullish on this counter Sir

Ramesh Damani: yes

maheshvp004: GE Cap - there was some news that GE may sell some part of GE Money. How does GE Cap look after this news.

Ramesh Damani: no change

money67: when FIIs sell big time who are the ones who is buying it? When there is someone to buy it, still why is the markets falling??

Ramesh Damani: Domestic Inst are buying...selling is more intense then buying..retail players hurt by F&O Losses

paliwala: sir, Igarshi result was good what is your view should one accumulate or wait for things to come?

Ramesh Damani: results were disappointing co is not out of the woods...investors have to be patient

viralkb: Data about Bill And MElinda Gates foundation buying into Geometric is available on Moneycontrol.com Bulkdeals section

Ramesh Damani: will take a look at it thanks..that is a good sign

rjrd: CEMENT:- In cement the most undervalued stock is Birla Corporation. Its available at 60$ per ton and is in northern and central markets. It is an old Ramdeo favorite stock.

Ramesh Damani: yes it offers value

wavestudent: Sir, Zen tech remained a dead stock all through the rise with no performance to talk about.Suddenly it rises 100% on RJ buying 10%.Does that mean operators have access to privilidged news or just the that people trust RJs foresight?

Ramesh Damani: i think the latter..he has a large following

wavestudent: Sir, had bought VIP

Ramesh Damani: in the short run market is a voting machine only in the long run it is a weighing machine...borosil may have had hidden value

Thesaint: Sir,would you agree with me that the proposal for delisting of companies with public holding below 25% is dumb and playing right into the the hands of management of some companies who wish to cheat their minority shareholders?

Ramesh Damani: yes it is too draconian

tspandya: sir do you feel there might be a foul play in taneja airport business Selloff? why would a company sell off an emerging business?

Ramesh Damani: no they will get a value for it

kapil_k_patil: Sir, considering long term growth story, do you think brokerage sector can do well (5 yrs perspective)?

Ramesh Damani: probably but a correction in them has started

nirajpatel108: with the talk of minimum 25% holding for public in all listed companies will companies with large promoter holding like Mico, Skfbearing, gillette get rerated as promoters would have to buy back to delist?

Ramesh Damani: yes we cannot reward them by allowing them to delist so easily

tirthv2004: Dear sir, i am very much inspierd by u and and ur gruop. I have inveted in ur , rz gs and enam scrip. i always see to u in lift. what i can do in ur and enam and rz scrip which i invets in 2003. at present value is rs 35 lack. and i wnat to make it 50 lack shold i hold or not

Ramesh Damani: thanks u are a wise investor

pukhmach: Sir, ITC palnning to open 75 hotels it will benefitted to ITHL to get business from them and open more counters.

Ramesh Damani: yes it would be

shishirkapadia: Sir AS You have mentioned commercial A/c segment for hitachi is big are to develop. DO they have any order with any big co as blue star and voltas order book is too strong, thanks.

Ramesh Damani: just starting ..lets wait

swamik: Dearest Ramesh, Is it a good time/value to buy sundaram finance?

Ramesh Damani: results were good..i remain optimistic

manojchillayil: Venkys. Very good results. Q3 net profit is almost equal to last entire year profit.I could see venkys processed chicken in all supermarkets in Bangalore.Good prospects ahead.

Ramesh Damani: i think so

malayakumar: Sir, We are Lucky to see and enjoy a great Indian Bull Market and a great Mentor Mr. Ramesh Damani .1 question, Do you know which phase of Bull market we are now? One personal question Do you feel angry sometimes, because of Investor Critics?

Ramesh Damani: thanks...ocassionally irritated...i share my experince.i dont promise anything..take money or brokerage..and people should understand that..but overall it is a great privelege...i feel lucky to be in a position to help

chandani: sir HOW CAN I HAVE long position in stocks as when I buy any stock I have to pay its price and get delivery..????

Ramesh Damani: in F&O segment u can buy on margin

holster13: Your follower from Boston: Just wanted to say Hello - and thanks for taking a lot of questions today! Are you inclined to buy Cairns India - or would you prefer to wait?

Ramesh Damani: thanks..rumor in india has it that mittal may be bidding for cairn UK

sree420: sir rakesh is great he said on cnbc last year diwali that 2008 year will be tough for mkt does the mkt entering full bear phase or intermediate one plz advise sir

Ramesh Damani: it looks tired ....but difficulat to make a firm call

himtaj: what are your views on global liquidity post the 125 basis points cut in the Fed funds rate ? Dont u think it would help in easing off the pressure ?

Ramesh Damani: not really...money may have become risk averse

singaraju: Sir, looking around me, a lot lot of new people are arriving the mkts with fresh money. Which is both exiting and frightening me. What should we (your students) do, when some of them asks -what to buy- I, usually guide them to your chat transcripts.

Ramesh Damani: but tell them it is only for long term investing not trading ideas per se, also warn them to do there own homework

brijeshjhawar: Sir in last chat i asked about Tata gr cos specially Tisco but i think you were quite bearish on mkts at that time now after tisco posted good results operating at 40% opm isnt it a big opportunity over 2-3 yr span pl advice

Ramesh Damani: in a global recession price of steel will fall

bangrk: after a prolonged bull run with higher tops and higher bottoms i feel we are now in the phase of lower tops and lower bottoms,which may take the markets tonew lows if lower top of 19600 is confirmed? rameshji, i would like to hve your firm opinon about that.

Ramesh Damani: cant say with conviction yet but it looks like market is tired...lets watch it

Sid_for_you: Taneja aerospace:I belive,they own air fields in Hosur and pune.Are you aware of any plans by them to make use of this large chunk of land for commercial use? Also,with FDI limit increased in MRO operations,is it a positive development for the company.Thanks for your reply.

Ramesh Damani: they are going to use it for an airport in hosur

sharad_bhatt: Sir, any recent site visit worth discussing?? something interesting?? we are not discussing such things since long??People only want quick tips

Ramesh Damani: am going to climb kilimanjaro next week in tanzania africa so reading and watching it on you tube..been occupying me...btw no chat next tuesday..will have gone

pavan_stock: sir thank u v much for recom book one up on wall street. I am half way thru it, its a great book

Ramesh Damani: thanks

thirteen: Dear Sir, long time...SURYA ROSHINI....what is yr sense. Has the management woken up and creating value for the investors

Ramesh Damani: seen no indication

ruchirkacker: Dear Damani saheb what do you say to an investor who has saved life long in equity to find one week of savage correction to deplete his portfolio by 30 %.

Ramesh Damani: these things happen...every crisis is also an opportunity...u wnat to finish with a 20% plus compounding rate...in between u hit lumps..markets are never linear

singaraju: Sir, after this correction, the real estate stuff lost some shine it used to enjoy. Now, whether TCI remains very attractive , especially looking from this angle?.

Ramesh Damani: yes

thirteen: Dear Sir, NUCLEUS - Q3 Revenue up 31% at Rs 73 cr YoY. Net profit up 11.4% at Rs 16.56 cr.EPS Rs 4.8.been adjudged as top 25 companies in terms of better corporate governance. Would you advice fresh investment considering these excellent and robust numbers or would advice wait for the dust to settle

Ramesh Damani: order book has been good...not sure if it is the right time to add am watchhing and waiting have held on

Ramesh Damani: thanks for joining...no chat next tuesday..c u later..bye

Your Stock Queries with SP Tulsian 30-01-2008

2008-01-30T15:45:00.000+05:30

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tata steel what is the target in a timespan of 1 year
Ans : Over Rs.1,000.

Hi I am in loss in Parsvnath & Reliance Infra. What should I do?
Ans : Hold for about 6 - 8 months.

SIR I AM HOLDING 2 HCL TECH FUTURE @315 AND ONE SATYAM FUTURE @ 422 I CAN HOLD ON TO THOSE STOCKS FOR 2-3 YEARS. SIR PLEASE ADVICE WHAT TO DO
Ans : How can you hold your F&O position for 2 - 3 years. You need to roll over which has cost of carry, in-built, for every month series.

I AM PURCHASE OSWAL CHEM FEB 50CA@2.05. PLEASE TELL ME HOLD OR SELL.
Ans : Please Hold.

Sir i am holding 500 shares of Deccan Aviation. Whats the short term prospect of this stock. pls advise
Ans : Not very positive.

Dear sir, I have purchased 1400 shares @ 162 of Development credit bank. What should i do . Please reply
Ans : Hold or convert to Dhanlakshmi Bank.

I want to buy GMR, RCOM, Larsen and Tourbo, AXIS Bank, REL and Bharti at current level. Is it okay to do this?
Ans : Yes. Go ahead.

Sir I have 80 shares of essroil @354 what to do?
Ans : Hold and exit when you get your price.

plz tell the future of celestial. I purshased the same at 73 levels.
Ans : Very good company. Remain invested.

I have bought Power Grid at 112 till what price should i hold it?
Ans : Potential to rise to Rs.150 in the next 12 months and to Rs.500 in the next 5 years. You decide your level.

please please please ............suggest me Sir, I have 2500GMR @233 RPL 1300 @ 165 Please suggest me Sir, please please please......wtg.for your reply
Ans : Both are excellent stocks if you have 12 months view. Don't look for short term rates.

Dear sir, I'm holding teledata 1100 shares@55 .At wat level i have to exit,how long shall i hold? shall i buy at this level. please advice
Ans : Exit and you would get shares of two other companies which would get listed in the next one month or so.

sir,15days back i have send a quary on cipla noreply. Iamhaving 200HBleasing&finance@52 shall i hold it or exit reply
Ans : Please Hold.

Sir, I have IDFC 100 @ 217, EMKAY 100@ 376, JYOTI STRUCTURE 200 @ 268, NTPC 200 @ 255, GDL 300 @ 166. Please adive me the future of these scripts. I am a short term invester Can i hold or sell. Thanks..
Ans : Exit from Emkay while remain invested in others, as long as you can.

I hv 1000 @ 180/- of manaksia.plz advise.
Ans : Please Hold.

Sir, I have 200 shares of RCF @ 125/-. Please advice about the future of this stock. Should I hold or exit.
Ans : Exit on rise.

I bought jindal stainless at 220,Tata Steel@900 and Relaince Comm @ 800 a few days before the crash. Should I hold. Please advise.
Ans : Hold all three.

Dear sir, Let me thank u for ur invaluable advice to retail investor like me. want to know prospects of Indo Rama Synthetics I have 500@ 55
Ans : Not very positive.

should i buy NMDC at present rate for 2 yrs holding.plz advise.
Ans : Not advised.

sir i buy 50 share of wallchand @8300 sir ihold it other wise sell that share pls sir tell me i m in loss
Ans : Please Hold.

sir, i have infosys 75 @ 1750, tcs 50 @ 970. acc @ 1010 maruti @ 1025 please advice me whether to quit these stocks at loss or what should i do. i can hold these for another 6 months. kindly advise me sir?
Ans : Exit from ACC on a rise while remain invested in other three for about 9 - 12 months.

Dear Sir, did u don't like my name ,I think this might be the reason u never answer my query, any way if my luck works this tme - my query is on GMR INFRA. purchased purely on your suggestion @ 190.00 I can hold it for 24 mth,I want to buy more can I do so at the CMP or just wait.
Ans : We must have replied over 100 queries on GMR Infra, by which you would have got your answer. Buying is advised at the current price for 24 months view.

Dear tulsiyan,Your service is good and i am profited nearly 10K from ur advice...Wat do u think of Facor steel and facor alloys???which company is good in long term.
Ans : Facor Alloys is better as it has reported an EPS of Rs.2.29 for 9 months against Facor Steels having reported an EPS of 31 paise. Face value of both the companies are Re.1.

Sir I have 225 RCF@Rs. 125 and 20Jai corp@ Rs.1320 i will wait for a long so what is the future prospects of this 2 companies.
Ans : Remain invested in Jai Corp while exit from RCF on a rise.

Sir, Is NDTV a good buy at 400?
Ans : Yes.

At what priceone shud buy welspun gujarat.Plz advise.thanks.
Ans : Current price of Rs.515 seems to have run quite a lot. Go for other pipe manufacturing stocks which are available at a cheaper rate.

sir i am new to investing & pls answer my query. is it true we cannot book the losses if the share is trading 50% below the buy price?
Ans : You can always book losses even if it rules below 90% of your buy price. However, daily lower circuit prevents you doing that, for the day.

Hello,Mr Tulsian my query is on L&T i have 200 shrs @4400 2 months back.after seperate entities stock will move up or go down, i am a short term investor.please advice me..
Ans : You needs to have a mid-term view to enable you to recover your cost which is likely in the next 4 - 6 months. Don't panic and sell.

Tulsian sir, first of all I would like to thank you for giving you valuable suggestion through this site, you are doing really a great job and GOD bless you. My question is what should the target for VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES in next 3-4 months. Should I go for buy this stock at current level?
Ans : Potential to rise to Rs.600 and buying is advised at Rs.500.

Hello Sir,I wish to invest 1 lac rs at current levels.which shares do you suggest?
Ans : IFCI, Noida Toll, GMR Infra, RIL and Powergrid.

Food so costly across ASIA - No way to curve Inflation

2008-01-29T23:51:00.000+05:30

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From Indonesia to China, rising food prices are proving a challenge for the Asia's poor.

Governments are also getting worried as sky-high food prices are often a recipe for social unrest.

Food prices are rising partly due to global warming, and also rising oil prices which raise the cost of transport.

Another FED Rate Cut of 50bps expected this week

2008-01-29T23:49:00.000+05:30

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Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher on Tuesday, spurred by hopes of another U.S. interest rate cut this week.

The Nikkei recovered ground on a softer yen against the U.S. dollar, as exporters like Canon gained.

Societe Generale - Rumours of Take Over

2008-01-29T23:47:00.000+05:30

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Societe Generale executive Chairman, Daniel Bouton, comes under fresh fire following the world's biggest rogue trading scandal.

Last week, SocGen linked unauthorised trading losses totalling 7.2 billion U.S. dollars to a single employee, Jerome Kerviel.

As the financial fallout continues, the French government has questioned whether Bouton should continue in his leadership role.